[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152343
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-160245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...AR...MS...TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 152343Z - 160245Z

THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS EXTREME NERN
AR AND THE MEMPHIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL RATES MAY
LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR.

A WEAK AND SLOW-MOVING MCV DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED
FROM ERN AR INTO WRN TN THIS EVENING. THIS LIFT WILL OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WHERE PW VALUES ARE GREATER
THAN 1 INCH. PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT RESULTANT CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING AND HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BACKBUILD/REPEAT NEAR THE
MCV CENTER AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED/MAINTAINED BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK ARCING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ATTM. NEARLY SATURATED
AIR MASS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..CARBIN.. 05/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35068987 34879023 34629087 34799111 35129100 35519067
            35789022 35848968 35678940 35288938 35068987



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