[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222000
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND SRN
LOW PLAINS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786...787...788...

VALID 222000Z - 222130Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  AN ENHANCED THREAT OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO NRN AR...FAR
WRN TN AND PERHAPS FAR ERN OK.

AS OF 1945Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS
OVER FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...WASHINGTON...IRON AND REYNOLDS COUNTIES
MO NEAR AND JUST TO THE NE OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N OF
SGF TO JUST N OF POF INTO NWRN TN /N OF DYR/.  ANOTHER INTENSE STORM
CLUSTER /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WAS LOCATED OVER FULTON...IZARD
AND STONE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL AR.

MODIFICATION OF EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LIT AND SGF
INDICATES THAT AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO...AR INTO ERN OK HAS BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
ACCOMPANYING WIND PROFILES INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH 45-60 KTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2.  THIS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS LIKELY LARGER INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO WHERE 0-1 KM SRH
LIKELY EXCEEDS 250-300 M2/S2.  DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT IS GREATEST
ACROSS NRN AR INTO SRN MO.

EXPECT OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO
TO EVOLVE SIMILARLY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
FROM NEAR LIT NEWD TO NEAR DYR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..MEAD.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

35239632 37299536 38449331 39069296 40359172 40468805
37478829 35708879 34358908 33639027 33549152 33769404
33689611

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