[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221955
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-222200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221955Z - 222200Z

TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z FOR THE AREA.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT
STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR FAM IN SERN MO EWD TO OWB IN WRN KY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN REINFORCED RECENTLY BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE MAIN WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 10 N OF POF TO 35 NE OF
DYR IN NWRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIFTING NWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO
NWRN TN AND SERN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO WRN KY AND
FAR SERN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE MAIN
WARM FRONT HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GREATEST
PRESSURE FALLS /2 MB IN 2 HRS/ AND THUS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO SUBSTANTIATED BY
RECENT PAH VWP DATA WHICH SHOWS A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH /40 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SVR WITHIN 1-2
HRS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG TORNADOES. IF ISOLATED
SVR THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE 22Z...THEN THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A TORNADO
WATCH WOULD FOCUS ON A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MO AND
NCENTRAL AR THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 22Z.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36188922 36538923 38148866 38118806 37968714 37058747
35968796 36038851



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