[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281652
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-281845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 281652Z - 281845Z

WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO AREA WHERE HEATING/WARM
ADVECTION IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.  STRONG WIND FIELDS CONTINUE
AHEAD OF LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY
ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES ARE INTO
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
INDICATING SOME LIMITS TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS COOLING
ALOFT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
PROCESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG.

THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE CREATING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 350
M2/S2...OR FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...

35018644 35048736 35638742 37038686 38418662 38688568
38488513 38378454 38208419 37778433 37098452 36408511
35588540 35028542

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