[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 290251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290251
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR / SERN MO / PARTS OF TN AND KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 290251Z - 290415Z

THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
 PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
SUB-SEVERE.  NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

LONE SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING ATTM IN STONE COUNTY AR -- IN ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 208 WHICH EXPIRES AT 29/03Z.  THIS STORM IS THE
LEFT-MOVING MEMBER OF A PRIOR SUPERCELL SPLIT...AND THIS SUPERCELL
PAIR HAS BEEN THE ONLY CONVECTION OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS
THIS REGION.  THOUGH WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LACK OF FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THUS...WITH ONLY
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AT BEST ANTICIPATED...NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT
BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 04/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

36279264 37119014 37258779 36728643 36188606 35688887
35249230 35669277

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