[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231802
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 231802Z - 232000Z

LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SERN AR/NRN LA IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS AND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OK/NRN TX. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE IN THIS REGION OF
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE INTENSIFYING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THIS LINE WILL AID IN A GREATER THREAT FOR A MORE
DISCRETE CELL TYPE WITH TIME. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION THE
AIRMASS WAS RECOVERING FROM EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...WITH UPPER 70S TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LATITUDE OF
GREENWOOD. CONTINUED WARMING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER WILL AID
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER
70S...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
DESPITE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ...WEAKENING/VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE HAIL/WINDS.

..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

31709129 32169258 32639277 34049211 34869061 35038928
34148851 32008872



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