[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010411
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0405 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W and continues southwestward to 02N17W. The ITCZ reaches
from 02N17W to 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident south of 04N and between 15W and 34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and
Hispaniola extends a ridge to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support
fresh to locally strong E-SE winds over much of the western half
of the basin. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. In the remainder of
the Gulf, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 2-5 ft seas
prevail. Widespread convection over Texas is also affecting the
nearshore waters of the state. No deep convection in the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across
the western Gulf through Tue. A cold front will enter the western
Gulf on Tue morning. The front will extend from the Florida
panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, and will move SE of the
area Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
west of the front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu and Fri as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are occurring in the central and SE Caribbean,
affecting Jamaica, southern Hispaniola and nearby waters. The
Caribbean Sea is under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure
system centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
NW South America result in strong to near gale-force easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters
are 7-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of
4-7 ft are found in the north-central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba,
across the Windward Passage, and off the southern coast of
Hispaniola through Tue. Strong trade winds and rough seas will
pulse off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week.
Winds and seas will then decrease by the second half of the week
as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and further from
the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N36W to 17N48W, followed by a surface
trough to 09N58W. A few showers are seen near these boundaries.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are evident north of 28N and
between the cold front and 29W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by two broad areas
of high pressure positioned south of Bermuda and in the eastern
Atlantic. Subsiding swell is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft north
of 20N and between 42W and 63W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas E of 65W will subside
from west to east through Mon. A cold front will move off the
coast of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda
to W Cuba Thu, and from near 31N58W to central Cuba Fri.
Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and behind
this front, mainly N of 25N.

$$
Delgado
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