[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of Guinea
just north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 02N17W. An
ITCZ continues from 02N17W to beyond 00S22W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from the Equator
to 03N between 18W and 25W. No significant convection is seen
near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging centered NE of the basin is dominating the
weather, with gentle SE flow over the northeast Gulf evolving to
moderate to fresh in the SW Gulf. Locally strong E winds have
developed offshore the northern Yucatan. Seas are 3 ft or less in
the NE Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in the SW.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds will
prevail across the western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will
enter the western Gulf on Tue. The front will extend from the
Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, and will move SE
of the area Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected west of the front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu and
Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough from Hispaniola to just SE of Jamaica is trigger
scattered moderate convection. Convection previously associated
with a weaker trough moving W into the Gulf of Honduras has
dissipated. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades dominate
the basin, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh NE winds are ongoing
offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Seas in these
locations are 6 to 8 ft. Also, northerly swell is propagating
through Atlantic passages near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,
inducing similar seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba,
across the Windward Passage, and off the southern coast of
Hispaniola through Tue. Strong trade winds and rough seas will
pulse off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week.
Winds and seas will then decrease by the second half of the week
as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and further from
the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N37W to 21N46W. Scattered moderate convection occurring
near and up to 150 nm east of the front. A surface trough
extending NE from the Leeward Islands to 22N55W has weakened and
associated convection has diminished. Otherwise, the basin is
dominated by a pair of high pressure centered, one 1024 mb
located near 27N68W and another 1020 mb focused at 27N30W.

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, fresh S winds are ongoing
N of 25N and W of 33W. Behind the front, a 150 nm band of moderate
to fresh NE winds prevail, with the high pressure back E of the
Bahamas leading to a broad area of gentle winds. NW of this high,
along 30N to the W of the Bahamas, increasing moderate to fresh
return flow has developed. Elsewhere ahead of the front, the other
high pressure centered is inducing gentle winds N of 20N. To the
south, mainly moderate trades dominate the waters W to the Lesser
Antilles.

To the E of 35W, rough seas E of 65W will subside from west to
east through Mon. A cold front will move off the coast of Florida
on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda to W Cuba Thu,
and from near 31N58W to central Cuba Fri. Increasing winds and
building seas will be both ahead and behind this front, mainly N
of 25N.


For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas E of 65W will subside
from west to east through Mon. A cold front will move off the
coast of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda
to W Cuba Thu, and from near 31N58W to central Cuba Fri.
Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and behind
this front, mainly N of 25N.

$$
Konarik
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