[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of Guinea
just north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 02N17W. An
ITCZ continues from 02N17W to beyond 00S22W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from the Equator
to 02N between 18W and 24W. No significant convection is seen near
the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from southern Florida to near the
Texas-Mexico border. Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the south-central Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2
to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds will
prevail across the western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will
enter the western Gulf on Tue. The front will extend from the
Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected west of the front. Winds and
seas will decrease Thu as the front moves southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of surface troughs embedded within the trades are
triggering scattered showers from near the Honduras-Nicaragua
border, northeastward to near Puerto Rico. Convergent trades are
causing widely scattered showers near the ABC and Windward
Islands. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are
seen at the south-central and north-central basin. Moderate to
fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the Gulf
of Honduras and Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba,
across the Windward Passage, and off the southern coast of
Hispaniola through Tue. Strong trade winds and rough seas will
pulse off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week.
Winds and seas will then decrease by the second half of the week
as the area of high pressure shifts eastward further from the
area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N40W to 20N48W. Scattered showers are occurring near and
up to 150 nm east of the front. A surface trough is producing
scattered showers northeast of the Leeward Islands from 20N to 23N
between 54W and 62W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh S to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident
north of 24N between 36W and the cold front. Otherwise, a pair of
high pressures near 26N70W and 26N30W are supporting light to
gentle with locally moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in
moderate northerly swell north of 20N between 25W and the
Florida-Georgia border. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to
moderate SW to NW winds and seas at 9 to 11 ft in large northerly
swell exist north of 27N between the northwest Africa coast and
25W. Farther south, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds along with
6 to 8 ft seas in moderate northerly swell dominate from 10N to
27N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W, including the Cabo Verde
Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell dominate.
Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed
moderate to large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 65W will
decrease from west to east through Mon. A cold front will move off
the coast of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near
Bermuda to western Cuba Thu. Increasing winds and building seas
will be both ahead and behind this front, mainly N of 25N.

$$

Chan
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