[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean near 10N14W and
continues southwestward to 01N18W. The ITCZ extends from 01N18W
to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm
on both sides of the ITCZ between 18W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface high positioned east of the NW Bahamas extends a ridge
to the Gulf of Mexico. No deep convection is noted across the
basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
in Mexico result in moderate to fresh E-SE winds across much of
the Gulf, except for light to gentle in the NE Gulf. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass also captured pulsing fresh to
strong easterly winds within 100 nm of NW Yucatan. Seas are 3-5
ft over much of the Gulf, except slight seas in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the western
Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western Gulf on
Tue. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche Wed, and will move SE of the area Thu. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected west of the front.
Winds and seas will decrease Thu as the front moves out of the
area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered pockets of low-level moisture are found in the central
Caribbean producing scattered showers. The basin is under the
influence of a 1022 mb high pressure system located east of the
NW Bahamas. The subtropical ridge forces strong to near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was
confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these
waters are 7-9 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of
4-7 ft are noted in the north-central Caribbean, Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue
to support pulsing of fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of
eastern Cuba, across the Windward Passage, and off the southern
coast of Hispaniola through Tue. Strong trade winds and rough seas
will pulse off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the
week. Winds and seas will then decrease by the second half of the
week as the area of high press

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high pressure system centered east of Bahamas dominates
much of the western Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are present north of
29N and east of 60W. Moderate to rough seas are occurring in the
area described. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N47W to
NW Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 8-12 ft
are occurring behind the frontal boundary.

A surface trough extends from 31N43W to 11N56W. Scattered showers
are evident near the trough axis. Fresh to strong southerly winds
and seas of 7-9 ft north of 26N and between 39W-47W. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high
pressure system near 26N30W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
seas of 10-13 ft are occurring north of 28N and east of 25W.
Farther south, moderate easterly trade winds and seas of 8-11 ft
are noted south of 20N and east of 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will continue
to move east of the area today. Strong winds and rough seas
follow the front W of 50W. Winds and seas will decrease from west
to east through early Mon as high pressure continues to build in
the wake of the front. The next cold front will move off the coast
of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda to W
Cuba Thu. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead
and behind this front mainly N of 25N.

$$
ERA
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