[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N20W to 04S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 13W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1023 mb high pressures centered over the SE United States and the
western Atlantic provide for fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Locally strong winds are noted off the NW Yucatan Peninsula with
seas to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh return flow is noted in the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf. Seas
range 2 to 4 ft across most of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the
western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western Gulf
on Tue. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche Wed, and will move SE of the area Thu. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected west of the front.
Winds and seas will decrease Thu as the front moves out of the
area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across central Hispaniola to 15N76W.
Fresh to strong NE continue to be analyzed in the Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba to E Jamaica, just behind the surface trough.
Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the lee of the Dominican
Republic. Seas are 4-7 ft within the Windward Passage, lee of
Cuba, along the east coast of Jamaica, and along southern
Dominican Republic. Fresh to locally strong trades are analyzed
within 120 nm of NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Gentle to moderate trades and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed elsewhere
in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and
across the Windward Passage through Sun evening. Strong trade
winds and rough seas will pulse off the southern coast of
Hispaniola the remainder of this weekend, and off the coast of
Colombia through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will then
decrease across the area the middle of the week as the area of
high pressure shifts eastward and further from the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Significant Swell Special Feature has been cancelled, as the
area of swell decreases. However, 12-13 ft seas in 10 second NW
swell remain over the waters north of 29N between 56W and 62W.
The area of 12 ft seas will continue to subside and seas will
drop below 12 ft Sun morning.

A cold front extends from 31N53W to the north coast of Hispaniola
near 19N69W. Scattered showers are along the front. Fresh to
strong NW winds are north of 27N west of the front to 65W, with
moderate to fresh N winds south of 27N west of the front across
the southern Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Seas 8 ft or greater
are north of a line from 31N53W to 20N70W to 24N74W to 31N73W.
Peak seas are described in the above paragraph. A surface trough
extends from 31N46W to 19N49W. Fresh to strong S winds are within
240 nm east of the surface trough axis. Seas are 8-11 ft north of
10N between the coast of Africa and 50W. Seas are 12-14 ft in 13
second N swell north of the Canary Islands between the coast of
Africa and 28W. 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 28N74W.
1020 mb high pressure is centered near 31N36W. In undescribed
areas of the basin, seas are 4-7 ft in moderate winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move east of the
area early Sun. Strong winds and rough seas follow the front E of
70W. Winds and seas will decrease from west to east through early
Mon as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Another cold
front will move off the coast of Florida Wed. This front will
extend from near Bermuda to W Cuba Thu. Increasing winds and
building seas will be both ahead of, and behind, this front N of
25N.

$$
AReinhart
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