[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N20W to 04S40W. No significant convection is noted
north of the equator at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1023 mb high pressures centered over the SE United States and the
western Atlantic provide for fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Gentle to moderate SE return flow and 2-4 ft seas prevail across
the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh E to SE winds will prevail across
the western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western
Gulf on Tue. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas
are expected west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across central Hispaniola to 15N76W.
Fresh to strong NE continue to be analyzed in the Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba to E Jamaica, just behind the surface trough.
Seas are 4-6 ft within the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba, and
along the east coast of Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong trades
are analyzed within 120 nm of NW Colombia. Seas in these waters
are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across the
Windward Passage through this evening. Winds and seas will then
diminish by tonight. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse
off the southern coast of Hispaniola this weekend, and off the
coast of Colombia through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Significant Swell Special Feature has been cancelled, as the
area of swell decreases. However, 12-14 ft seas in 10 second NW
swell remain over the waters north of 29N between 60W and 65W. The
area of 12 ft seas will continue to shrink and seas will diminish
below 12 ft Sun morning.

A cold front extends from 31N56W to the north coast of Hispaniola
near 19N69W. Scattered showers are along the front. Fresh to
strong NW winds are north of 27N west of the front to 65W, with
moderate to fresh N winds south of 27N west of the front across
the southern Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Seas 8 ft or greater
are north of a line from 31N53W to 20N70W to 24N74W to 31N73W.
Peak seas are described in the above paragraph. A surface trough
extends from 31N47W to 19N49W. Fresh to strong S winds are within
240 nm east of the surface trough axis. Seas are 8-11 ft north of
10N between the coast of Africa and 50W. Seas are 12-15 ft in 13
second N swell north of the Canary Islands between the coast of
Africa and 28W. 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N79W.
1022 mb high pressure is centered near 31N37W. In undescribed
areas of the basin, seas are 4-7 ft in moderate winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will move east of the area
early Sun. Strong winds and rough seas follow the front. Winds and
seas will decrease from west to east this weekend as high
pressure builds eastward in the wake of the front.

$$
Mahoney
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