[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
to 04N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N22W crossing the
Equator near 28W and continuing to the coast of Brazil near
05S35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 02N to 04N between 20W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slowly moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend in
the northeast Gulf to 1009 mb low pressure near 25N94W to Merida,
Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas
follow the front. The pressure gradient between the front and a
ridge east of Florida is sustaining fresh southeast to south
winds ahead of the front south of 26N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.
Seas elsewhere are 6 to 8 ft, except for lower seas of 4 to 6 ft
over the NE Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the Bay of Campeche. A ridge
follows the front and dominates the western Gulf producing
mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds. A large area of showers
and thunderstorms is ahead of the front affecting mainly the
waters N of 24N, and parts of north and central Florida. Some of
the thunderstorms are strong to severe, capable of producing
strong gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and waterspouts.

Areas of smoke are being observed over the southeastern and
central Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas that follow the front are forecast to persist through
Thu, when the front is expected to move southeast of the basin.
Winds and seas will further diminish Thu night into Fri as high
pressure moves across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.
This pattern will also support fresh E to SE winds across the
western Gulf through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 4 to 7 ft, ahead of a
cold front that is currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
The pressure gradient between high pressure that is present just
north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the
Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central
Caribbean. The southern portion of a central Atlantic cold front
is identified as a weakening stationary front that reaches
southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands. A pre-frontal
trough reaches southwestward to just east of Martinique. A weak
ridge extends across the Bahamas into Cuba and Hispaniola.
Its associated pressure gradient is producing mostly gentle
northerly winds behind the front across the northeast Caribbean.
Large northerly swell reached the northeast Caribbean coasts and
Passages during the overnight hours. Regional buoy observations
are revealing seas of 6 to 9 ft through the passages, and 3 to 4
ft elsewhere across the eastern basin. Scattered to broken low
clouds and isolated showers are noted over the eastern
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a cold front currently moving into the southeast
Gulf of Mexico will move into the Yucatan Channel early Thu.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the front across
the northwest Caribbean Thu and Thu night as the front reaches
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Fri. The winds
and seas will diminish late Fri while the front weakens. High
pressure building north of the region in the wake of the front
will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of western Cuba
and across the Windward Passage Fri night. These winds and seas
will diminish Sat, but strong winds and rough seas will pulse off
the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat
and Sun as the high pressure settles north of the area east of
the Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from a 1007 mb gale center
located north of the area near 32N59W southward to near 27N56W
and to 21N58W, where it transitions to a weakening stationary
front to the northern Leeward Islands. A weak trough is just east
of the frontal boundary and runs from 21N57W to near Martinique.
The pressure gradient between the front and a 1029 mb high
pressure near 33N38W is producing an elongated band of strong to
near gale-force southeast winds north of 27N between 50W and 57W,
where seas are in the 12 to 16 ft range. An area of moderate to
fresh NW winds is noted between a 1006 mb low pressure situated
near 30N66W and a ridge E of Florida with axis along 75W. Large
northerly swell generated across the northwest Atlantic during
the past couple of days continues to propagate southward across
the western Atlantic in the wake of the above mentioned cold
front. An altimeter pass indicate seas of 8 to 12 ft roughly
between 65W and 70W. This swell event is propagating through the
Caribbean Passages at this time. The current swell is forecast to
subside to below 12 ft by early this evening. Moderate northerly
swell will continue to impact the waters west of 60W tonight
through Thu night.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a high pressure center of 1029 mb that is centered to the
southwest of the Azores near 33N38W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic
flow is occurring south of the associated ridge and E of the
above mentioned cold front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these
winds based on altimeter data. Rough to very rough seas surrounds
the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the
tropical Atlantic with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure S of Bermuda located
near 32N59W will drift SE and dissipate through Thu. An area of
strong to near gale force winds and rough seas active to the NE
of the low will gradually shift to the E of 55W through Thu
accordingly. Farther west, a cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast early Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba
by early Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by early Sat, then
move E of the area on Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will
follow the front, then diminish from west to east as high
pressure builds eastward along roughly 29N in the wake of the
front.

$$
GR
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