[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A slow moving cold front extends
from a 1007 mb gale low north of the area near 31N59W southward
to 31N59W and continues to 26N58W and to 23N58W, where it
transitions to a weakening stationary front to the northern
Leeward Islands. A weak trough is just east of the frontal
boundary from near 26N56W to 20N58W extending southwestward to
just east of Martinique. The pressure gradient is producing an
elongated band of strong to gale-force southeast winds. The gale-
force winds are occurring north of 27N between 54W and 57W, with
seas of 12 to 16 ft. The gale-force winds are forecast to lift
north of 31N this afternoon, and be replaced by strong to near
gale southeast winds through Fri.

Western Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large northerly swell
generated across the northwest Atlantic during the past couple
of days continues to propagate southward across the western
Atlantic in the wake of the above mentioned cold front that
extends from 31N59W to the northern Leeward Islands. This large
swell is located north of 24N west of the front to 72W. This
is propagating through the Caribbean Passages at this time. An
associated 1006 mb low pressure center near 30N66W will move
southeastward during the next 48 hours and help to maintain the
development of northerly swell moving towards the northeast
Caribbean. The current swell is forecast to subside to below 12 ft
by early this evening. Moderate northerly swell will continue to
impact the area waters west of 60W tonight through Thu night.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Sierra Leone to 04N18W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues
to 01N22W crossing the Equator near 23W and continuing to
06S25W to 08S32W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
from the Equator to 04N between 30W-35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from near Apalachicola southwestward
to low pressure of 1009 mb near 24N90W. A cold front extends from
the low to the eastern Bay of Campeche and to inland Mexico near
Ciudad del Carmen. A weakening reinforcing cold front is
following in closely behind the aforementioned front, and extends
from near Destin, Florida southwestward to 25N93W and west-
northwest to inland Texas at 25N98W. Fresh north to northeast
winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are behind the second front. The
pressure gradient between the leading front and a high pressure
ridge east of Florida is sustaining fresh southeast to south winds
east of the front south of 26N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Seas
elsewhere are 6 to 8 ft, except for lower seas of 4 to 6 ft over
the NE Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the Bay of Campeche.

Satellite imagery shows quite an impressive large area of numerous
showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm southeast of the leading
front north of 27N and within 90 nm southeast of the same front
from 25N to 27N. Some of the thunderstorms are strong to severe,
capable of producing strong gusty winds, frequent lightning
strikes and waterspouts.

Areas of smoke are being observed over the southeastern and
central Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the weakening reinforcing cold front will
dissipate this afternoon. Fresh to strong northeast winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the leading front across the
Gulf as it moves southeast of the basin by late Thu. Looking
ahead, high pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the
wake of the front Thu night through Fri night, supporting fresh E
to SE winds across the western Gulf through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 5 to 8 ft, ahead of a
cold front that is currently moving across the central and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between high pressure that
is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker
pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds
over the central Caribbean. The southern portion of a central
Atlantic cold front is identified as a weakening stationary
front that reaches southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands.
A pre-frontal trough reaches southwestward to just east of
Martinique. A narrow ridge extends from just east of the northwest
Bahamas to the central Bahamas. Its associated gradient is
producing mostly gentle northerly winds behind the front across
the northeast Caribbean. Large northerly swell reached the
northeast Caribbean coasts and Passages during the overnight
hours. Regional buoy observations are revealing seas of 6 to 9 ft
through the area passages, and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere across the
eastern basin. Scattered to broken low clouds and isolated showers
are along and near the weakening stationary front. These showers
are spreading southwestward toward the far northeastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest
Caribbean will diminish this afternoon and tonight, as a cold
front moves southeastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Fresh to strong N winds and large swell will follow the front as
it moves in through the Yucatan Channel Thu. The front will
continue to move SE and reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Thu evening, and from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras
Fri morning, as wind and seas begin to diminish behind the front.
Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northeast winds across the
Windward Passage Fri night through late Sat, as the front stalls
from central Hispaniola to northeast Nicaragua. Expect fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean Sun as
high pressure builds north of the region and to the east of the
northern Bahamas in the wake of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large northerly swell dominates the Western Atlantic between the
Bahamas and 59W. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above
for more information on this event and for details relating to
gale-force winds east of a central Atlantic cold front.

A cold front extends from a 1007 mb gale low north of the area
near 31N59W southward to 31N59W, and continues to 26N58W and to
23N58W, where it transitions to a weakening stationary front to
the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery shows a large area
of numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the trough and
frontal boundary from 20N to 25N between 47W and 52W and also
north of 25N between 52W and 55W. A weak trough is just east of
the frontal boundary from near 26N56W to 20N58W extending
southwestward to just east of Martinique. Scattered to broken low
clouds, with isolated showers are near both the weakening
stationary front and weak trough. High pressure is building in
behind the front with a ridge extending southward toward the SE
Bahamas, and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds
are N of 27N and west of the front to 72W where seas are 12 to 16
ft in north swell. Elsewhere west of the front, light to gentle
winds are noted, with the exception of moderate southeast winds W
of 78W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in northeast swell east and north of
the Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast areas are
under the influence of a high pressure center of 1029 mb that is
centered to the southwest of the Azores near 33N40W. Fresh to
strong anticyclonic flow is occurring south of the associated
ridge and extends to along the above mentioned cold front. Seas
are 8 to 11 ft across the trade wind zone north of about 14N and
east of 50W. Seas of 11 to 13 ft are along and northeast of the
front. Rough to very rough seas surrounds the Madeira Islands.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic south
of 15N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds north of 26N,
and rough seas and rough to very rough seas accompany a cold
front that extends from near 31N59W southward to 31N59W and
continues to 26N58W and to 23N58W, where it transitions to a
weakening stationary front to the northern Leeward Islands.
The front will move slowly eastward and weaken through midweek,
as associated low pressure currently southwest of Bermuda moves
southeastward to near 29N61W this afternoon, and to near 26N58W
by early Thu while weakening. The front will dissipate through
late Fri as the low pressure stalls, weakens, and lifts northward
again to the east of Bermuda through Sat, accompanied by strong
winds and rough to very rough seas to its northeast. Meanwhile,
fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow a new cold front
that will move off the northeast coast of Florida Thu, reach from
Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri morning, and from 31N55W to central
Hispaniola Sat morning. Looking ahead, the front will stall and
weaken from near 31N55W to the Leeward Islands by late Sun. Winds
and seas will diminish over most areas west of the front as high
pressure builds along 27N in the wake of the front.

$$
Aguirre
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