[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Swell Event: Seas, generating by a deepening
low pressure system located NW of Bermuda, are propagating into
the Atlantic forecast waters building seas to 12 to 15 ft
roughly N of 27N between 65W and 75W. This swell event will
persist tonight and Tue, with seas building up to 17 ft tonight
into Tue morning. The low pressure will begin to move slowly SE
and weaken, crossing into the Atlantic forecast region Tue and
gradually becoming stationary near 25N60W on Thu, then dissipating.
The large NE swell W of 70W will persist through Wed before
gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward
across the waters E of 70W through Tue, then slowly subside Wed
through Thu.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida and a low
pressure system over Texas and the eastern Gulf supports
southerly winds reaching gale force over the north-central Gulf
and rough to very rough seas. Scatterometer data confirmed the
presence of these winds that are forecast to diminish below gale
force tonight through late Wed ahead of a cold front moving off
the Texas coast tonight.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra
Leone border and continues southward to near 01N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N17W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 15W and
32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the north-central Gulf of
Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information.

A ridge over the eastern U.S. extends southwestward across
Florida and the eastern Gulf while a low pressure system
dominates the western Gulf. This pattern supports fresh to strong
SE to S winds across most of the waters E of 95W, with winds
reaching gale force across the north-central Gulf. Seas are 8 to
12 ft N of 21N between 85W and 96W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere,
except across the offshore waters of W Florida, and W of the
Yucatan peninsula where seas are generally 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, SE winds reaching gale force and rough to very rough
seas are ongoing across the north-central Gulf, ahead of a cold
front moving into the coastal plains of Texas. These winds and
rough seas will diminish tonight through late Wed ahead of a cold
front moving off the Texas coast tonight. The front will weaken
as it moves southeastward through mid week, eventually moving
southeast of the Gulf by late Thu. Looking ahead, expect fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas over mainly the south-
central and southeast Gulf behind the front late Thu and Fri as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front and low pressure
deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish again
across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward
across the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E to SE winds persist over the northwest Caribbean
between high pressure just north of the area and a trough extending
from Haiti across Jamaica into Honduras. The most recent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and
in the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds are noted over the
central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
seen over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles on the
SW periphery of a strong high pressure system that dominates most
of the east and central Atlantic. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the
NW Caribbean, with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Seas
of 2 to 4 ft are elsewhere across the basin. A cold front and a
pre-frontal trough are bringing some showers and isolated
thunderstorms over parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough
seas are forecast to persist over the northeast Caribbean
through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system to enter the Gulf
of Mexico. This next cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel and into the NW Caribbean Thu night then dissipate. Large
N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean
late Tue and persist through early Thu before subsiding. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Windward
Passage Fri into Sat as high pressure builds north of the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A swell event dominates the Western Atlantic NE of the Bahamas.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information.

A cold front extends from Bermuda to eastern Dominican Republic.
A pre-frontal trough runs from 29N61W to just N of Puerto Rico. A
ridge is noted behind the front and extends southward across
Florida and the Bahamas into Cuba. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters is under the influence of a strong high pressure
center of 1035 mb located W of the Azores near 39N36W. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds are in the wake of the front N of 25N with
seas of 10 to 15 ft N and E of the Bahamas based on an altimeter
pass and buoy observations. Similar wind speeds and seas of 8 to
10 ft are N of 20N under the influence of the aforementioned
strong high pressure. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds
dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move eastward and
reach from 31N62W to W Hispaniola by this evening, then weaken
considerably as it moves E-SE across the Atlantic waters E of
60W and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. As
previously mentioned, the associated low pressure located NW of
Bermuda will begin to move slowly SE and weaken, crossing into
the Atlantic forecast waters Tue, gradually becoming stationary
near 25N60W on Thu, and then dissipating. Strong N to NE winds
and large NE to N swell will continue to spread southward behind
the front tonight before a narrow high pressure ridge builds
southward into the Bahamas through Wed. Large NE swell will build
southward, W of 70W, and persist through Wed before gradually
subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the
waters E of 70W through Tue, then slowly subside Wed through Thu.
Fresh to strong SE winds and large seas will persist across the
far NE waters through Thu. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish across the region Fri into Sat as high pressure builds
across the region.

$$
GR
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