[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Large N Swell: Currently, low pressure is
deepening to the NW of Bermuda, with an associated cold front
extending through 31N65W to 25N66W to the Windward Passage.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail across the Atlantic waters
behind the cold front, N of the Bahamas, and W of 68W this
morning. Associated large N to NE swell is producing seas of 12
to 16 ft across this area. The storm-force low center will
slowly move S-SE this afternoon, crossing into the area Atlantic
waters Tue and gradually weakening as it becomes stationary near
26N61W on Thu. Strong to gale- force N to NE winds occurring on
the western side of this low will continue to generate large
swell and rough to very rough seas over the SW N Atlantic waters
N of 26N and W of 65W through early Wed before seas subside
below 12 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure over the eastern U.S. and a low pressure system
currently located over Nebraska will produce strong SE to S winds
to around 30 kt across the northern Gulf today through this
evening, with frequent gusts to gale-force winds over the N
central and NE Gulf. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted in recent buoy
observations and will build to 13 ft by tonight across this area.
As the low continues its track NE, the pressure gradient will
begin to relax tonight. Wind gusts to gale will decrease by
Tuesday morning, while seas subside below 8 ft by Tuesday evening.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa and enters the Atlantic
near 06N10W, then continues SW to 01N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N17W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the monsoon
trough to 05N between 12W and 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information about the Gale Warning over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Surface ridging over the eastern U.S. extends southwestward to
the NE Gulf, while low pressure associated with the next frontal
boundary dominates the western half basin. This pattern supports
fresh to strong SE to S winds across all but the SE basin, where
seas are up to 8 to 12 ft noted in recent buoy observations.
Seas are 5 to 8 ft south of 24N and 4 to 6 ft over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
shift eastward today, allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds
to expand across all but the SE Gulf. A new cold front will enter
the NW Gulf on this evening, reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue morning, then drift
E and stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue
behind the front over the W and SW Gulf. The front will then begin
to move SE early Thu and move SE of the basin Thu evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

 A stationary front is dissipating from the Windward Passage
into the NE coast of Nicaragua. Winds behind the front over the
NW Caribbean have veered overnight, and are moderate to fresh
from the E to E-SE, except pulsing to locally strong in the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas west of the front are 3 to 5 ft. The remainder
Caribbean is under the influence of light to gentle variable
winds and slight to moderate seas, except for the far SE basin
where trade winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas 5 to 6
ft.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough
seas over the northeast Caribbean will continue through Tue,
ahead of the next frontal system to enter the Gulf of Mexico.
This next cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel and
into the NW Caribbean Thu night. Large N swell will reach the
Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist
through early Thu before subsiding. Otherwise, winds and seas
will remain well below normal through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Western Atlantic Large N Swell.

Aside from the area of winds and seas in the Special Features,
the remaining subtropical Atlantic to the east is under the
influence of a broad surface ridge, extending from 1038 mb high
pressure near 40N37W to the northern Leeward Islands. The
associated pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and rough seas in the 8-11 ft range over the waters E
of 50W. Fresh to strong S to SE winds prevail east of the cold
front to 55W, and north of 25N. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across this
area. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180
nm E of the front to the north of 24N, while scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere along the front into the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move eastward and
reach from 31N62W to W Hispaniola by this evening, then weaken
considerably as it moves E-SE across the regional Atlantic E of
60W and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night.
Associated low pressure NW of Bermuda will deepen today, then
begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken, crossing into the area
Atlantic waters Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 25N61W
on Thu, then dissipating. Fresh to strong SE winds and large seas
will persist across the far NE waters through Thu.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net