[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250454
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 25  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0454 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Large N Swell: Fresh to strong N to NE winds
and rough to very rough seas to 16 ft will continue to affect
the SW N Atlantic waters N of 26N through Mon along a pair of
fronts. By Mon evening, a low connected to the reinforcing front
will deepen overnight and Mon, then begin to move slowly S-SE
and weaken, crossing into the area Atlantic waters Tue and
gradually becoming stationary near 26N61W on Thu. Strong to gale-
force N to NE winds occurring on the western side of this low
will continue to generate large N to NE swell with seas above 12
ft covering much of the area between 69W and 80W tonight. Large
northerly swell generated across the western semicircle of this
low will maintain a large area of seas above 12 ft through Tue
night, N of 26N between 64W and 74W. Seas could peak as high as
20 ft along 31N70W on Mon night. Seas will then begin to slowly
diminish across the Atlantic waters Thu. Otherwise, fresh to
strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue to
affect the NE offshore waters to Wed evening along with rough
seas to 12 ft.

NE Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
high pressure over the eastern U.S. and a low pressure system
currently located near SE Colorado will produce frequent SE
wind gust to gale force winds over the NE Gulf beginning Monday
morning. Seas will build to 12 ft by Monday night within the
area of the wind gust to gale force. As the low continues its
track NE, the pressure gradient will begin to relax, therefore,
wind gust to gale will decrease by Tuesday morning. While seas
will subside bellow 8 ft by Tuesday late afternoon.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W then
continues SW to 04N19W to 02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 02N27W
to 00N36W and to the coast of Brazil near 01N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm S of the ITCZ/Monsoon
trough axis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information about the Gale Warning over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Surface ridging over the eastern U.S. extends to the eastern half
of the Gulf while low pressure associated with the next frontal
boundary dominates the western half basin. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh E winds E of 90W and fresh to
locally strong SE winds W of 90W. Seas are 4 to 5 ft, except 5-7
ft W of 91W. Light showers are depicted along the coast of Texas
and Louisiana

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. extends
into the NE Gulf tonight, and will shift eastward through Mon,
allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds across the western
Gulf to expand across all but the SE Gulf by morning. A new cold
front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon evening, reach from the
mouth of the Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue
morning, then drift E and stall from the Florida Big Bend to the
central Bay of Campeche Wed night. Fresh to strong N winds are
briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W and SW Gulf.
The front will then move SE of the basin Thu afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba SW into NE
Nicaragua. Northerly winds behind the front over the NW
Caribbean are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. The remainder
Caribbean is under the influence of light to gentle variable
winds and slight to moderate seas, except for the far SE basin
where trade winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas to 5
ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift
E and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon.
Northerly winds behind the front will veer to the SE on Mon and
become fresh to strong over the western Caribbean late Mon
through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf
of Mexico, and while Atlantic high pressure persists across the
U.S. middle Atlantic coast. Large N swell will reach the
Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist
through early Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain well
below normal through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Western Atlantic Large N Swell.

Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge extending to 20N and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and rough seas in the 8-11 ft over the waters E of 50W.
Seas of 11-12 ft are N of 26N and E of 27W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N65W to
24N69W then southwestward across eastern Cuba. The front will
move eastward and reach from 31N63W to NW Hispaniola by Mon
afternoon, then weaken considerably as it moves E-SE across the
regional Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue
night. Associated low pressure NW of Bermuda will deepen
overnight and Mon, then begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken,
crossing into the area Atlantic waters Tue and gradually
becoming stationary near 26N61W on Thu. Strong to near gale-
force NE winds and large NE to N swell will spread in behind the
front tonight before a narrow high pressure ridge builds
southward into the Bahamas Mon night through Wed. Large NE swell
will build southward, W of 70W, tonight through Mon and persist
through Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will
build southward across the waters E of 70W overnight through
Tue, then slowly subside Tue night through Thu. Fresh to strong
SE winds and large seas will persist across the far NE waters
through Thu.

$$
KRV
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