[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Large N swell: Gale force S to
SE winds will end early this evening in the western Atlantic just
ahead a pair of cold fronts with tails moving across the southern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. However, fresh to strong
northerly winds and rough to very rough seas to 16 ft will
continue to affect the SW N Atlantic waters N of 25N through Mon.
By Mon evening, the low connected to the reinforcing front will
deepen while taking a SE track into the NE offshore waters Tue
evening. Strong to gale-force N to NE winds occurring on the
western side of this low will continue to generate large N to NE
swell with seas above 12 ft covering much of the area between 67W
and 80W tonight. The low will begin to weaken is it moves to near
25N64W by Thu. Large northerly swell generated across the western
semicircle of this low will maintain a large area of seas above
12 ft through Tue night, N of 26N between 63W and 77W. Seas could
peak as high as 20 ft along 31N71W on Mon night. Seas will then
begin to slowly diminish across the Atlantic waters Wed through
Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front
will continue to affect the NE offshore waters to Wed evening
along with rough seas to 12 ft.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W then
continues SW to 04N20W to 03N27W. The ITCZ extends from 03N27W to
00N36W and to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 200 nm S of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging over the eastern U.S. extends to the eastern half
of the Gulf while low pressure associated with the next frontal
boundary dominates the western half basin. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds E of 90W and fresh to
locally strong SE winds W of 90W. Seas are 4 to 5 ft, except 5-7
ft W of 91W.

For the forecast, surface ridging extending to the eastern Gulf
will shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh to strong
southerly winds to prevail over the western Gulf through tonight.
Strong southerly winds will then expand to the central and eastern
Gulf Mon as a new cold front enters the western Gulf on Mon
night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the
front over the W and SW Gulf. The front will move slowly E-SE and
weaken mid-week, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba SW into NE Nicaragua.
Northerly winds behind the front over the NW Caribbean are gentle
to moderate with 3-4 ft seas. The remainder Caribbean is under the
influence of light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate
seas, except for the far SE basin where trade winds are moderate
to locally fresh and seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will transition to a cold
front tonight and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on
Mon. Northerly winds behind the front will veer to the SE on Mon
and become fresh to strong over the western Caribbean late Mon
through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of
Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE
and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through early Thu. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain well below normal through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
a Gale Warning and large long period swell.

Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge extending to 20N and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and rough seas in the 8-12 ft over the waters E of 50W. Seas
of 11-12 ft are N of 27N and E of 27W.

For the forecast W of 55W, gale force S to SE winds will end
early this evening in the western Atlantic just ahead a pair of
cold fronts with tails moving across the southern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos. However, fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough to very rough seas to 16 ft will continue to affect the SW N
Atlantic waters N of 25N through Mon. By Mon evening, the low
connected to the reinforcing front will deepen while taking a SE
track into the NE offshore waters Tue evening. Strong to gale-
force N to NE winds occurring on the western side of this low will
continue to generate large N to NE swell with seas above 12 ft
covering much of the area between 67W and 80W tonight. The low
will begin to weaken is it moves to near 25N64W by Thu. Large
northerly swell generated across the western semicircle of this
low will maintain a large area of seas above 12 ft through Tue
night, N of 26N between 63W and 77W. Seas could peak as high as 20
ft along 31N71W on Mon night. Seas will then begin to slowly
diminish across the Atlantic waters Wed through Thu. Otherwise,
fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue
to affect the NE offshore waters to Wed evening along with rough
seas to 12 ft.

$$
Ramos
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