[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Large N swell: Gale force S to
SE winds continue across the western Atlantic this morning, north
of 26N between 70W and 67W, ahead of a cold front that extends
from 31N73W to eastern Cuba near 23N78.5W. Seas are 11 to 15 ft
across this zone. As the fronts continue advancing eastward, the
gales will shift northward of 28N by midday, and then lift N of
31N and the area waters by sunset today. Seas across the area of
gales will remain in the 12 to 15 ft range through this evening.
The cold front is connected to broad low surface pressure across
the Atlantic to the W and NW of Bermuda. This area of low pressure
will continue moving NE and stall well offshore of Cape Hatteras
tonight where it will become better organized and deepen. Strong
to gale-force N to NE winds occurring on the western side of this
low will generate large N to NE swell that will begin to move into
the local NW Atlantic waters this afternoon, and propagate into
the Florida coasts, and reach the Bahamas and Atlantic waters W of
70W tonight. Seas in excess of 12 ft will reach as far south as
27N tonight, and cover much of the area between 67W AND 80w. Peak
seas of 18 ft are expected along 31N tonight. The low pressure
center is forecast by global models to move SE Mon night through
mid-week, and will cross 31N Tue morning, then begin to weaken is
it moves to near 25N64W by Thu. Large northerly swell generated
across the western semicircle of this low will move into the local
Atlantic waters with the low, and maintain a large area of seas in
excess of 12 ft through Tue night, N of 26N between 63W and 77W.
Seas could peak as high as 20 ft along 31N71W on Mon night. Seas
will then begin to slowly diminish across the area Atlantic
waters Wed through Thu.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Bahamas Heavy Rainfall: A line of strong thunderstorms associated
with the cold front has shifted E and NE overnight, and is still
impacting the central Bahamas and adjacent waters to the NE.
These thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours with
low visibility, frequent gale-force wind gusts, and possible
waterspouts. Over land, heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. As
the frontal system exits the area this morning, conditions will
improve. Please refer to https://www.weather.gov for the latest
local rainfall information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N14.4W then
continues SW to 01.5S25W. The ITCZ extends from 01.5S25W to the
coast of Brazil near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06.5N to 06.5S between 00W and 34W, and
from 02.5N to 04S between 35W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved deeper into the NW Caribbean overnight,
with a reinforcing secondary cold front extending from SW Florida
across the western tip of Cuba and into the Yucatan Peninsula.
Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds follow the front E of 88W
with rough seas to 9 ft in NW to N swell. West of 88W, moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds prevail, with and seas of 4 to 7 ft.
The basin is generally precipitation free this morning.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S.
extends to the N central Gulf, in the wake of the passing fronts,
and will shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh to strong
southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf by noon today.
Strong southerly winds will then expand to the central and eastern
Gulf tonight through Mon night as a new cold front enters the
western Gulf early Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly
expected Tue behind the front over the W and SW Gulf. The front
will move slowly E-SE and weaken by mid-week, reaching from the
Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends through the Bahamas across central Cuba
along 79W and into the Gulf of Honduras. The second reinforcing
front extends across the W tip of Cuba and into the Yucatan
Peninsula. Strong convection has weakened to scattered moderate
convection along the front S of Cuba. Fresh NW to N winds are
occurring across the far NW Caribbean behind the leading cold
front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are
ahead of the front N of 18N and into the eastern half of Cuba and
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, high pressure over the NW
Atlantic extends a surface ridge southwestward to the Turks and
Caicos, and is sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds across
the central and eastern Caribbean Sea E of 75W. Seas are 4-6 ft
across the central and eastern basin. Scattered showers are seen
across the Windward Passage and W portions of Haiti.

For the forecast, the leading cold front will continue to move SE
and reach from eastern Cuba to the NE coast of Nicaragua by
midday today, then stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE
Nicaragua on Mon. Northerly winds behind the front today will veer
to the SE on Mon and become fresh to strong over the western
Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system
entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic
Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through
early Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain well below normal
through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Gale Warning and Cuba and Bahamas Heavy Rainfall.

Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the far
E Atlantic and easterly winds of the same magnitude over the
central Atlantic waters. Rough seas between 8 to 13 ft are E of
44W while rough seas to 10 ft are ahead of the front in the
Special Features reaching as far as 65W. W of the cold front
strong to near gale-force N to NE winds has crossed 31N in recent
hours and are impacting the nearshore coastal waters of NE
Florida. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are elsewhere behind the
front and E of Florida. Seas there are 6 to 10 ft in mixed SE and
N swell. Strong to near severe convection E of the front has
weakened to moderate to isolated strong between the front and 65W.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale-force S winds occurring
N of 26N and W of 65W will shift slowly eastward through this
evening, ahead of a cold front that currently extends from 31N73W
to eastern Cuba near 23N78.5W. The front will reach from near
31N68W to eastern Cuba by midday today, reach from 31N65W to the
Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it
moves SE across the Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters
through Tue night. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE
to N swell will follow the front today through Mon. Low pressure
will deepen NW of Bermuda Mon, and move SE and slowly weaken
across the area waters Tue through Thu. Large N to NW swell will
spread across the waters E of 70W, and NE swell W of 70W, Mon
night through Wed night.

$$
Stripling
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