[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 24  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0424 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S to SE winds continue
north of 30N between 74W and 71W, ahead of a cold front that
extends from 31N75W to central Cuba. Seas in excess of 12 ft are
currently analyzed north of 27N between 70W and 75W with peak
seas to 15 ft. A reinforcing cold front will enter the western
Atlantic tonight. As both fronts continue advancing east, the
gales will shift eastward and increase in areal coverage through
tomorrow. Gales to 40 kt are forecast north of 29N between 66W
and 68W Sun morning. Seas greater than 12 ft are forecast within
waters north of 27N between 64W and 80W on Sunday, with peak
seas to 17 ft. By Sunday night, gales are forecast to end.
However, large N swell will build and maintain seas to 19 ft
across the western Atlantic through early this week.

Mariners should monitor all of the above hazardous marine
conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the
latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Cuba and Bahamas Heavy Rainfall: A line of heavy showers and
strong tstorms associated with the leading cold front in the
section above is impacting central Cuba, central and eastern
Bahamas and its adjacent waters. These thunderstorms are capable
of producing heavy downpours with low visibility, frequent gale-
force or stronger wind gusts, and possible waterspouts. Over
land, heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. As the frontal system
exits the area tonight, conditions will improve. Please refer to
your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at website:
https://www.weather.gov for the latest local rainfall
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W then continues
SW to 05N19W to 03S27W. The ITCZ extends from 03S27W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N
to 07N between 12W and 21W, and from 04S to 02N between 20W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A reinforcing secondary cold front extends from SW Florida to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula and the south Gulf waters. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds follow the front E of 91W with rough seas
to 9 ft. West of 91W, winds and seas are moderate.

For the forecast, a cold front has moved SE into the NW
Caribbean, while a reinforcing secondary front extends from SW
Florida to the northern Yucatan. The second front will also move
SE of the basin overnight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
prevail E of 90W through morning before diminishing. High
pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward
Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to
develop over the western Gulf Sun, ahead of the next cold front.
Strong southerly winds will then shift to the central and
eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the new cold front
enters the western Gulf early Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds
are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W and SW
Gulf. The front will slow and weaken mid-week from the Florida
Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends through the central Bahamas across western
Cuba along 80W and into the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N. While a
surface trough is ahead of the cold front. Numerous strong
convection is ongoing along the front S of Cuba. Therefore
expect higher winds and seas across the area. Fresh to locally
strong NW winds are occurring across the far NW Caribbean
associated with the tail of a cold front moving across the area.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front across the
remainder NW Caribbean with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, high
pressure over the NW Atlantic extending a surface ridge
southwestward to just east of the Bahamas, is sustaining
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Seas are 4-7 ft across the central and eastern
basin.

For the forecast, western Atlantic surface ridging will shift E-
NE through Mon. A cold front extending through the central
Bahamas across western Cuba along 80W and into the Yucatan
Peninsula near 19N will move SE and reach from east-central Cuba
to the NE coast of Honduras by Sun morning, then stall and
dissipate from NW Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Strong
thunderstorms along the front S of Cuba will shift eastward
through morning. Northerly winds behind the front through Sun
will veer to the SE Mon and become fresh to strong over the
western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next
frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will
reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue
and persist through early Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will
remain well below normal through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Gale Warning and Cuba and Bahamas Heavy Rainfall.

Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the far
E Atlantic and easterly winds of the same magnitude over the
central Atlantic waters. Rough seas between 8 to 13 ft are E of
37W while rough seas to 10 ft are ahead of the front in the
Special Features reaching as far as 61W.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale-force S winds
occurring N of 29N and W of 70W will shift slowly eastward
through Sun, ahead of a cold front that currently extends from
31N75W to Cuba near 23N80W. Strong thunderstorms with frequent
gusts to gale-force and frequent lightning are expected along
the front across the Bahamas and northeastward through Sunday
morning. The front will reach from near 31N69W to east-central
Cuba on Sun morning, reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage
by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across
the Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night.
Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will
follow the front early Sun through Mon. Low pressure will
develop NW of Bermuda Tue and move SE and weaken across the area
waters through Thu. Large N to NW swell will spread across the
waters E of 70W, and NE swell W of 70W, early Tue through Wed.

$$
KRV
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