[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A surface low pressure center and
a cold front are forecast to form near the coast of Texas late on
Thursday. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward from
the Gulf of Mexico to inland southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat.
Winds will expand in coverage ahead of the cold front that will
trail from the low over the western waters, reaching from near
31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be
possible over most of the northern and central zones with the
southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale northwest to
north winds and rough seas will follow this front. Widespread
heavy rainfall on Fri and Sat will impact southern Florida, the
Bahamas and Cuba and nearby waters.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

In addition, please refer to bulletins and advisories from the
local Weather Services that are in the expected heavy rainfall
impact areas for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 02N26W,
where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 01S40W and to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north
of the ITCZ between 27W-34W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ
between 37W-44W. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is south of the ITCZ from the Equator to 02N
between 11W-31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered in the the NE Gulf at 28N86W.
Its associated gradient is providing for moderate to fresh
southeast winds are occurring southwest of a line from the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula to southeastern Texas. Seas over
these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail. Broken mid to high level clouds streaming
eastward are over most of the basin. Isolated light showers are
possible over the west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will shift
eastward today as as low pressure develops near the coast of
Texas. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward along
the Texas coast today, then eastward along or just inland the
northern Gulf coast through Fri to inland the southeastern U.S.
late Fri night. A trailing cold front will exit the basin through
late Sat afternoon. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are
forecast ahead of the front, with fresh to strong northerly winds
behind it. Widespread showers and strong thunderstorms, some
potentially severe, are expected with the low center and the cold
front. High pressure in its wake will also quickly shift eastward
from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf. These
winds shift to the central and eastern Gulf Mon and Mon night as a
cold front moves across the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic extends southward
to over the extreme northern Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are over the central and southeastern Caribbean and
also the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Seas over these
waters are 3 to 6 ft as noted in a couple of satellite altimeter
data passes. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. Moderate to fresh
trades are expected elsewhere over the east and central Caribbean
while gentle to moderate winds will remain over the northwest
Caribbean. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds will develop
in the northwest Caribbean and in the Yucatan Channel by early Fri
as low pressure and its attendant cold front move across the Gulf
of Mexico. This front will likely reach the Yucatan Channel and
the far northwestern Caribbean on Sat afternoon, then gradually
weaken as it moves across the rest of the northwest Caribbean
through the weekend, eventually stalling and dissipating. Fresh
southeast winds develop over most of the western Caribbean Mon and
Mon night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the
northeast coast of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a weak 1014 mb low that is north of
the area near 33N54W, southwestward to 25N60W and to 23N64W,
where it transitions to a stationary front to the northern
section of Hispaniola. Numerous showers and thunderstorms moving
eastward are noted ahead of the front north of 26N and between
50W and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds are within about 180 nm on
either side of the front. Seas over these waters are 5 to 8 ft.
Broad high pressure dominates the remainder of the western
Atlantic west of the front, along with moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas.

A strong 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues to
be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northeast to
east winds north of 15N and east of 35W. Seas over these waters
are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas
of 5 to ft are present east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the northern part of the aforementioned cold
front will shift E of the area by Fri morning, while the southern
part will remain nearly stationary along the northern coast of
Hispaniola. The front will dissipate E of the area on Sat. High
pressure in the wake of the front will quickly move eastward
through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to
develop E of Florida as low pressure tracks northeastward from
the Gulf of Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night into
Sat. These winds will expand in coverage ahead the trailing cold
front over the western waters. The front will reach from near
31N69W to the Windward Passage by late Sun night, and from near
31N64W to near the Virgin Islands by late Mon night. Gale
conditions will be possible over most of the northern and central
zones with the southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near
gale force northeast winds and rough seas will follow this front.

$$
Aguirre
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