[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A surface low pressure center and
a cold front are forecast to form near the coast of Texas late on
Thursday. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward from
the Gulf of Mexico to inland SE U.S. Fri night and Sat. Winds
will expand in coverage ahead of the cold front that will trail
from the low over the western waters, reaching from near 31N72W to
eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be possible over
most of the northern and central zones with the southerly winds
Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale northwest to north winds and
rough seas will follow this front. Widespread heavy rainfall on
Fri and Sat will impact southern Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba and
nearby waters.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 02N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 01S35W and to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 200 nm
on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure system centered just west of Florida
dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
occurring south of a line from NE Yucatan to SE Texas. Seas in
these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail. Widespread high clouds are found across the
basin, however, no deep convection is present.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will quickly shift
eastward through Thu as a low pressure system develops near the
coast of Texas. The low pressure is forecast to track
northeastward across the northern Gulf and to over the western
Florida panhandle and the southeastern U.S. Fri and Fri night,
pushing a cold front across the basin. Strong to near gale-force
southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front, with fresh to
strong northerly winds behind it. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected with the low center and attendant cold
front. High pressure in its wake will also quickly shift eastward
from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf. These
winds shift to the central and eastern Gulf Mon and Mon night as a
cold front moves across the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure north of the islands extends southward into
the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are
found in the central and southeastern Caribbean and also the
Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are 3-6
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. Moderate to
fresh trades are expected elsewhere over the east and central
Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds will
develop in the northwest Caribbean and in the Yucatan Channel by
early Fri as low pressure and its attendant cold front move
across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will likely reach the
Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean on Sat
afternoon, then gradually weaken as it moves across the rest of
the northwest Caribbean through the weekend, eventually stalling
and dissipating. Fresh southeast winds develop over most of the
western Caribbean Mon and Mon night, with the exception of fresh
to strong winds near the northeast coast of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure near 30N56W to
22N64W, where it becomes a stationary front to NE Hispaniola.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident north
of 24N and between 47W and 57W. Moderate to fresh winds are
present within 200 nm on both sides of the frontal boundary. Seas
in these waters are 5-8 ft. Broad high pressure dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic west of the front, along with
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

A strong 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues to
be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE-E winds
north of 15N and east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
noted east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from a weak 1015 mb low near
30N56W southwestward to 23N63W, where it transitions to a
stationary front to northern Hispaniola. The weak low will be
near 30N55W by Thu morning, with the trailing cold front extending
to Hispaniola. By Fri morning, the northern part of the front
will shift E of the area, while the southern part will remain
nearly stationary along the northern coast of Hispaniola. The
front will dissipate E of the area on Sat. High pressure in the
wake of the front will quickly move eastward through Fri night,
allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop E of
Florida as a low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. These
winds will expand in coverage ahead of a cold front that will
trail from the low over the western waters, reaching from near
31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be
possible over most of the northern and central zones with the
southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale northwest to
north winds and rough seas will follow this front.

$$
Delgado
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