[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W to 04N21W. The
ITCZ then continues from 04N21W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of 02N between 15W-42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern gulf from 30N85W to
29N96W. High pressure is centered over the SE gulf waters near
27N83W. Upper level diffluent flow is supporting scattered
showers S of the front mainly S of 26N. Slight to moderate seas
and light to moderate winds prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will move eastward across the
Atlantic through Mon, and maintain a lingering ridge westward over
the western Atlantic and into the central Gulf through Sun. A
weakening front will drift N and dissipate tonight. A new cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Sun evening and gradually shift S
of the basin by Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are
expected behind the front Sun night through Tue. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and into the early morning hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical ridging N of the area
and low pressure over NW Colombia continue to support fresh to
near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean and moderate
to fresh speeds elsewhere. Seas are moderate in the 5-7 ft range
over most of the region, except for rough seas to 10 ft off the
coast of Colombia. Otherwise, aside from the Gulf of Honduras,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas are ongoing over
the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic will slide eastward and into the eastern
Atlantic through late Sun then remain stationary. The lingering
ridge to the W will support fresh to strong winds across the
south-central and portions of the southeast Caribbean through Tue.
Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and
prevail through the remainder forecast period, except for strong
winds developing at night off Colombia. Otherwise, fresh trade
winds will pulse to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras, the
Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through Mon. A cold front
will sink into the NW Caribbean Tue evening then stall from
eastern Cuba to the NE Yucatan Wed and dissipate Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high near 28N48W. The ridge is
crossed by a weakening cold front over the E subtropical
Atlantic, which extends from 31N23W to 21N38W. The ridge is
providing mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of 23N.
Otherwise, the gradient between the ridge and lower pressure
associated with a frontal boundary N of the area is supporting
fresh to locally strong SW winds N of 29W along with moderate
seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic will slide eastward and into the eastern
Atlantic through Sun then becoming nearly stationary through Tue.
A broad associated ridge will persist westward across the area
through Mon. A cold front will enter the offshore waters of NE
Florida Mon, reach from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas
by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from the central
Atlantic waters to northern Hispaniola by Thu morning. Fresh to
strong S to SW winds are expected N of 27N and ahead of the front
Sun night through Tue night, while fresh to near gale-force NW to
N winds will follow the front Mon night through Tue evening. High
pressure will settle across the area Wed through Thu.

$$
ERA
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