[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to
the Equator along 28W, to 02S36W, 01S44W, to the coast of Brazil
near the Equator along 49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. The
comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation is from 03N
southward from 30W westward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central Gulf waters, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. The
front becomes stationary offshore Texas, and it continues through
parts of northern Mexico, just to the south of the Texas Big Bend,
and to West Texas. Some areas of low clouds remain in the Texas
coastal plains, between the middle Texas Gulf coast and the upper
Texas Gulf coast, and into the SW quadrant of Louisiana.
Comparatively fairer skies are in the rest of the coastal plains/
the coastal waters of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
from 26N northward from 90W westward. Scattered to broken high
level clouds are moving from the SW corner of the area toward the
northeast. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 28N83W, off the
coast of the Tampa Florida metropolitan area.

Moderate seas are from the Florida Big Bend westward. Slight seas
are elsewhere. Mostly moderate winds, with some fresh winds, are
in the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic will
continue to move eastward across the Atlantic through Mon, yet
maintain a lingering ridge westward over the western Atlantic and
into the central Gulf through Sun. A weakening cold front has
moved into the N Gulf waters this morning and will stall along 28N
this evening then begin to drift N and dissipate tonight. A new
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun night and gradually
shift S of the basin by Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are
expected behind the front Sun night through Tue. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and into the early morning hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Rough seas are from Hispaniola southward between 70W and the
coastal waters of Central America from Nicaragua southward.
Moderate seas are elsewhere from Jamaica southward from 83W
eastward. The comparatively highest seas are rough, in the coastal
waters of Venezuela and Colombia between 70W and 77W, including
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas are in the NW corner of
the area. The comparatively highest seas are off the coast of
Belize. Slight seas are off the eastern point of Honduras. Strong
broad surface cyclonic wind flow is from 15N southward between 68W
and 78W. Fresh broad cyclonic winds are elsewhere from 80W
eastward. Moderate or slower winds cover the remainder of the
area.

High pressure located over the central Atlantic waters will slide
eastward and into the eastern subtropical Atlantic through Mon.
The lingering ridge to the W will support fresh to strong winds
across the south-central and portions of the southeast Caribbean
through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds and prevail through the remainder forecast period, except
for strong winds developing at night off Colombia. Otherwise,
fresh trade winds will pulse to strong speeds across the Gulf of
Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through early
Mon. A cold front will sink into the NW Caribbean Tue evening then
stall from eastern Cuba to the NE Yucatan Wed then dissipate Wed
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N25W, to 26N30W 20N42W. A surface
trough continues from 20N42W, to 19N51W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 27N northward between
23W and 32W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate to locally strong, are elsewhere from 15N to 20N between
40W and 60W, and from 20N northward between 19W and 42W. Rough
seas are to the north of 05N52W 05N40W 22N17W, and from 15N
southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are
from 23N southward between 50W and 60W; from 18N southward between
37W and 50W. Moderate and fresh NE winds are from 21N southward
from 37W eastward. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 28N69W
31N50W northward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N52W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is in the areas that are to the west and to
the northwest of the cold front/surface trough.

High pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic will
slide eastward and into the eastern Atlantic through Mon before
becoming nearly stationary. A broad associated ridge will persist
westward across the area through Mon. A cold front will enter the
offshore waters of NE Florida early on Mon morning, reach from
near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue morning and move
to central Atlantic waters by Thu morning. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds are expected N of the Bahamas and ahead of the front Sun
night through Tue night, while fresh to near gale- force NW to N
winds will follow the front Mon night through Tue evening.

$$
mt/ss
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