[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 03N17W, and to the Equator along 22W. The
ITCZ continues from the Equator along 22W, to 02S33W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the east and to
the southeast of the lin:e 09N13W 05N21W 03N32W, to 04N51W at the
coast of South America.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High level clouds are from 22N northward. The clouds are moving
eastward. Moderate seas are in the coastal waters, from Louisiana
to 20N at the coast of Mexico. Slight seas are elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh SE winds are from 84W westward. Gentle winds are
elsewhere.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the central
Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to move
off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from the
Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat evening
and will exit the area Sun night while weakening. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front. Conditions will improve Mon and Mon
night as high pressure build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1034 mb high pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near
34N42W. A surface ridge extends from the 1034 mb high pressure
center, to Cuba.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 15N southward between 65W and
73W. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 16N southward between
64W and 74W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the remainder
of the area that is from 80W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds
are within 60 nm of the coast of Honduras between 84W and 86W.
Fresh SE winds are elsewhere from 19N southward from 82W westward.
Moderate SE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from
13N northward from 80W westward. Mostly gentle to some moderate
winds are in the SW corner of the area, from 13N southward from
80W westward. Moderate seas in general are from 80W eastward. The
comparatively highest sea heights are from 16N southward between
64W and 78W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea.

High pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low will
support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over
the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, and in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat night. Fresh to strong trades will also
prevail over the southeastern Caribbean through Sat night. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front
will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 60W
westward. A cold front passes through 31N75W to 27N82W in SW
Florida. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 30N northward between 64W and 67W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 60W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward between 45W
and 62W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 22N to 30N between 42W and 48W.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N09W to 25N19W, inland
and in the coastal waters of Africa. Minimal precipitation is
associated with this front.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 34N42W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward between the Africa
dissipating cold front and the western Atlantic Ocean cold front.

Rough to very rough seas are from 27N northward from 30W
eastward. Rough seas are elsewhere to the north of the line 31N53W
23N48W 05N47W 10N36W, 13N16W at the coast of Africa. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong E to SE
winds are from 20N to 29N between 40W and 50W. Fresh to strong SE
winds are elsewhere from 16N northward between 36W and 50W. Strong
NE winds are from 17N to 26N from 37W eastward. Fresh to strong
NE winds are elsewhere within 400 nm to 500 nm on either side of
26N15W 18N36W; and from 02N to 16N between 35W and 47W. Fresh
winds are elsewhere from 50W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 27N
northward between 54W and 66W. Fresh NE winds are from 14N
southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front over the NW waters will move across the northern
waters through Sat, exiting the forecast region by early Sat
evening. A stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast
of northeast Florida Sat night. This front is forecast to reach
from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and from near 28N55W
to the southeastern Bahamas by Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms,
some possibly strong, are likely to precede this front. High
pressure will build in the wake of this front.

$$
mt/al
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