[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
01S22W. The ITCZ extends from 01S22W to the coast of Brazil near
03S39W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
S of 07N and E of 22W and W of 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida peninsula off the Ft.
Myers coast. A trough extends off the Florida Keys to NW of the
Yucatan. No significant deep convection is occurring today over
the Gulf. An area of haze is present over the SW Gulf as seen in
the GOES satellite imagery, being caused by agricultural fires
over Mexico and Central America. Winds are gentle to moderate
across the Gulf with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is over the area.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the central Gulf
on Fri ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to move off
the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from near
Apalachicola, in the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by
early Sat evening, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula on Sun, before exiting the area Sun night while
weakening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough
seas are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Conditions will
improve Mon and Mon night as a ridge builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is forcing
fresh trades over the S central Caribbean and only gentle to
moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft over the S central
Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is
occurring over the Caribbean today.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to
east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, and
in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh
trade winds over the southeastern Caribbean will reach fresh to
strong speeds at night tonight and are expected to generally
continue through Sat night. A weakening cold front will approach
the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends southwestward from 31N76W to the
Florida peninsula near 28N80W. Winds are gentle to locally
moderate on each side of the front with seas 4-6 ft. An upper-
level trough between the SE United States and Bermuda is inducing
scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 67W-72W. A
surface trough extends from 17N49W to 23N47W southeastward of
another upper trough. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 23N-30W between 43W-49W. Farther east, a weakening cold
front extends from 31N10W to south of the Canary Islands near
27N15W, where it transitions to a dissipating cold front to
26N18W. Winds behind the front are fresh to locally strong
northerlies. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb
high centered north of our area near 33N39W with ridging
extending west- southwestward to the central Bahamas near 23N75W
and eastward to Morocco near 30N00W. The moderate pressure
gradient equatorward of the high/ridge is forcing fresh to strong
NE to E trades east of 45W and fresh to strong E to SE trades
east of 55W. A large NW swell is occurring north of 28N and east
of 35W with seas of 12-15 ft. Elsewhere northeast of a line from
31N57W to EQ10W, seas are 8-12 ft in mixed NW swell and wind
waves. Southeast of that line seas are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 31N76W to central
Florida. Winds ahead of the front have diminished to moderate to
fresh speeds. The front will move across the northern waters
through Sat, exiting the forecast region by early Sat evening. A
stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast of
northeast Florida Sat night, reach from near Bermuda to western
Cuba Sun night and from near 28N55W to the southeastern Bahamas by
Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are
likely to precede this front. High pressure will build in the wake
of this front.

$$
AReinhart
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