[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W and 02N28W. No ITCZ is apparent.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N
southward from 50W eastward, and from 11N southward between 50W
and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through southern Georgia, into the Florida
Panhandle, beyond SE Louisiana. The precipitation that is
accompanying this front is limited to possible rainshowers within
60 nm on either side of the front. A NE-to-SW oriented surface
trough passes through NE Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N to
29N between 80W and 87W, including inland in Florida. An upper
level trough is moving from Florida eastward.

Slight seas, and mostly gentle to some moderate winds, are
everywhere.

A Broad area of low pressure dominates most of the Gulf waters
while Atlantic high pressure extends westward across South Florida
and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds will develop over the western half of the Gulf
tonight into Thu ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to
move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from
the Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico late on Sat, from
near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, then exit
the area Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate
to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1034 mb high pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near
35N44W. A surface ridge extends from the 1034 mb high pressure
center, through central Cuba, and into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Venezuela between 61W and
64W. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 17N southward from
80W eastward. Strong SE winds are from 16N to 18N between 84W and
86W, off the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
elsewhere in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward
from 82W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the area. Moderate seas are in the central one-third of the
area, and in the SE quadrant. Slight seas are in the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low
will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds
over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night and in the Gulf
of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over
the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night
tonight and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is moving from Florida eastward.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 69W
westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are from
25N northward from 70W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 22N northward between 47W
and 62w. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 23N to 27N between 49W and 63W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean. A 1034 mb high pressure center is in the
Atlantic Ocean near 35N44W.

A cold front is along 30N/31N from 30W eastward.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are from 30N northward from 40W eastward.

Strong surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward
between 34W and 56W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N
northward from 34W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds
are in the areas that are bounded by the line 14N16W 03N35W, to
the Equator along 47W, and the line 17N60W 20N49W 20N36W, to the
coast of Africa along 22N. Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds
are from 22N northward between 57W and 70W. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from
22N northward between 40W and 70W. Moderate to rough seas are
from 17N to 30N from 24W eastward. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas across
the offshore waters N of 24N and east of 70W will continue to
decrease overnight tonight. Fresh to strong south to southwest
winds and building seas off north-central Florida, ahead of a cold
front will gradually diminish by late Thu. The front will move
eastward across the northern waters through Sat, and exit the
forecast region on Sun. A second cold front is expected to emerge
off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night and extend from near
Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are likely to precede the
front.

$$
mt/ja
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