[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Guinea near 11N16W
and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from
02N27W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along
the ITCZ from 05S to 05N between 14W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from the Florida Big Bend to 23N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the trough
axis to 22N, east of 87W. A weak pressure gradient across the
basin is supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas
west of 90W, while gentle to moderate winds from the S and W and
slight seas are found across the basin east of 90W.

For the forecast, broad area of low pressure dominates most of
the Gulf waters while the Atlantic ridge extends across south
Florida into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds
will develop over the western half of the Gulf tonight into Thu
ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast
Fri afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to
near Veracruz, Mexico late on Sat, from near Ft. Myers, Florida to
the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, then exit the Gulf region Sun
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas
are expected in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad strong high pressure is centered over the north-central
Atlantic extends a ridge to just north of the basin. This is
supporting the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds off
the coast of Colombia and SE winds of the same magnitude over the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are
elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas basin- wide
are slight to moderate, with peak seas at 7 to 8 ft in the south-
central portion of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E
winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night and in
the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade
winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at
night tonight and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted off the Florida
coast and through the Bahamas, N of 25N and W of 75W. This
convection is occurring ahead of a surface boundary near the
Florida- Georgia Bend. The presence of this boundary and a surface
ridge to the west supports fresh to locally strong SE to S winds
and moderate seas to 8 to 9 ft west of 65W. East of 65W, a broad
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are observed in an earlier
scatterometer pass from 23N to 31N to 38W with rough seas in NE to
E swell. Further east across the subtropical Atlantic north of
20N, surface ridging dominates with moderate to fresh N to NE
winds and moderate seas. Over the remainder of the basin south of
20N, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
rough seas across the offshore waters N of 24N and east of 70W
will continue to decrease through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds and building seas off north-central Florida, ahead of a
cold front, will gradually diminish by late Thu. The front will
move eastward across the northern waters through Sat, and exit the
forecast region on Sun. A second cold front will come off the
coast of NE Florida Sat night and extend from near Bermuda to
western Cuba Sun night.

$$
AReinhart
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