[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are occurring over the north Gulf, potentially leading to locally
higher winds and seas. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity that is affecting mainly the
waters N of 26N and E of 94W. A couple of buoy observations over
the NE Gulf are reporting NE winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. This
gale will end soon.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W, then continues southwestward to 01N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03S to 04N between 19W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the north
Gulf, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas.
Please, see the Special Features section above for more details.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, the pressure gradient between
lower pressure over the western half of the Gulf and a weak
surface ridge covering the region E of 90W is supporting moderate
to locally fresh SE winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, strong to gale force winds over the NE Gulf
will diminish below gale force by this evening. Moderate to
occasionally fresh SE winds are over the remainder of the central
and eastern Gulf. Winds will gradually diminish tonight through
Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop Thu night in the
central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the
Texas coast Fri. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle
to near Tampico, Mexico Sat, and from central Florida to the Bay
of Campeche Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered well N of the area combined with the
Colombian low supports fresh to locally strong trades and 6 to 8
ft seas over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades
are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 7 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except
for light winds and seas in the lee of Cuba.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. These patches of low level moisture are now more
concentrated over the eastern Caribbean affecting the Windward
Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate
to fresh trade winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to
strong speeds at night Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong NE
to E N of 25N between 43W and 65W where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft
range. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail across the
remainder of the offshore forecast waters W of 55W with seas of 6
to 9 ft based on altimeter data. A surface trough is analyzed
over the central Atlantic and extends from 24N42W to 15N45W. A
few showers are near the northern end of the trough. Fresh to
strong SE winds are along the northern portion of the trough
trough and light to gentle NE to E winds are noted in the southern
trough. Seas are 6 to 9 ft near the trough axis. A ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters anchored
by a 1025 mb high pressure located NW of the Madeira Islands near
33N24W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen under the
influence of this system. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds
near the coast of Morocco where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 6 to
7 ft prevail across the waters E of 35W, except in the lee of the
Madeira, Canary and Cabo Verde Islands where sea heights are 4 to
6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
rough seas across the offshore waters N of 20N and east of 70W
will gradually decrease tonight and Wed. Winds and seas will
increase off NE Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The front
will move eastward across the far northern waters through Sat, and
move E of the area Sun.

$$
AReinhart
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