[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are occurring over the north Gulf, potentially leading to locally
higher winds and seas. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity that is affecting mainly the
waters N of 26N and E of 94W. A couple of buoy observations over
the NE Gulf are reporting NE winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. NWS
Weather Forecast Offices from SE Louisiana to Tallahassee have
issued a Gale Warning for wind gusts to gale force until 3 pm CST.
A recent scatterometer pass over the NE Gulf indicate the presence
of strong to gale force southerly winds within the convective
activity.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W, then continues southwestward to 01N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 01S33W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 05N between
20W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere
from 05.5N to 07N between 12W and 16W, within 90 nm N of the ITCZ
between 36W and 40W, and near 00N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the north
Gulf, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas.
Please, see the Special Features section above for more details.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, the pressure gradient between
lower pressure over the western half of the Gulf and a weak
surface ridge covering the region E of 90W is supporting moderate
to locally fresh SE winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will
prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through this evening,
diminishing slightly through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds will
develop Thu night in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will reach
from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered well N of the area combined with the
Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades and 6 to 8 ft seas
over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades are also
noted in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except for
light winds and seas in the lee of Cuba.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. These patches of low level moisture are now more
concentrated over the eastern Caribbean affecting the Windward
Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate
to fresh trade winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to
strong speeds at night Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NE to E
N of 25N between 43W and 65W where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft
range. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail across the remainder
of the offshore forecast waters W of 55W with seas of 6 to 9 ft
based on altimeter data. A surface trough is analyzed over the
central Atlantic and extends from 24N42W to 14N45W. A few
thunderstorms are near the northern end of the trough. Moderate to
fresh SE winds and on the east side of the trough and light to
gentle NE to E winds are noted ahead of it. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
near the trough axis. A ridge dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast waters anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure
located NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are seen under the influence of this system. Winds
increase to fresh to strong speeds near the coast of Morocco where
seas are 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail across the waters E
of 35W, except in the lee of the Madeira, Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands where sea heights are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
rough seas across the offshore waters N of 20N and east of 70W
will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week.
Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida tonight ahead of the
next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed
evening. The front will move eastward across the far northern
waters through Sat.

$$
GR
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