[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
The tight pressure gradient between a 1034 mb High off N Carolina
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low will sustain fresh to strong easterly
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean into early next
week. These winds will pulse to gale-force off the northwestern
Colombia coast during the nighttime and early morning hours
tonight and Sat. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest
winds are expected to reach 11 to 13 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for additional
information.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning:
A very strong high pressure of 1040 mb is well north of the area
over the northern Atlantic just northwest of the Azores. A tight
pressure gradient between this high and a broad surface trough
across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force winds in the
Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These
winds are forecast to persist through at least this morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Guinea
coast, then extends southwestward across 06N20W to 02N31W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05S to 05N
between 09W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana
where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to a
1013 mb low pressure in the NW Gulf from where a dissipating cold
front extends to Tampico, Mexico offshore waters. Moderate to
fresh SE winds are over the NE gulf while NE winds of the same
magnitude are ongoing W of the frontal boundary and low in the NW
gulf. Seas are moderate in the northern basin and slight
elesewhere. Otherwise, scattered showers are ocurring over the NE
basin N of 27N.

For the forecast, the low will move NE out of the north-central
Gulf today. In response, the eastern part of the front will
retreat northward as a warm front, while the western portion will
remain generally stationary into the weekend. The boundary will
then dissipate over northern waters Sun. Over the weekend, high
pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build weakly into
the basin, bringing fairly tranquil conditions to the basin for
the start of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details about a
gale warning.

A tight gradient between a 1034 mb high off N Carolina and a 1008
Colombian Low sustains fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas
of 7 to 11 ft across the central basin, including waters near the
Windward Passage but outside the Gale Warning area. Moderate to
fresh ENE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are seen at the eastern basin.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure centered N of the region will
build southward and strengthen through Sat night, causing fresh to
strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage
to expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin.
Winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through
Sat night while fresh to strong NE winds through the Atlantic
passages will prevail through Sun. Winds and seas will begin to
gradually diminish over the eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon as
Atlantic high pressure retreats to the NE. Otherwise, fresh to
strong trade winds are forecast off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Honduras Sun through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning
in the eastern Atlantic.

Former stationary front has transitioned to a cold front that
extends from 30N64W to 28N72W where it transitions to a stationary
front that continues to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to
strong NNE winds are behind this front along with 8-9 ft seas. A
strong Azores High extends a ridge a covers most of the E
subtropical waters while a broad trough lingers over the central
Atlantic subtropical waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough along 55W N of 23N
will drift E through the weekend, with some weak low pressure
centers possibly developing along it at times, inducing strong to
near gale-force NNE winds to the west of the trough axis. The cold
front will move E across the northernmost waters, crossing the
waters N of 28N through today, with some strong NE to E winds
behind it. Winds and seas will diminish for the start of next
week.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net