[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
The tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High and a
1008 mb Colombian Low will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean into early next week.
These winds will pulse to gale-force off the northwestern Colombia
coast during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight
through early Sat morning. Seas near and just downwind of these
strongest winds are expected to reach 11 to 13 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for additional
information.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning:
A very strong high pressure of 1042mb is well north of the area
over the northern Atlantic just northwest of the Azores near
41N31W. A tight pressure gradient between this high and a broad
surface trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-
force winds in the Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the
Morocco coast. These winds are forecast to persist through at
least Fri morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Guinea
coast, then extends southwestward across 06N20W to 02N31W.
Convergent westerly winds south of the trough are coupled with
divergent winds aloft to trigger numerous strong convection from
the Equator to 03N between 10W and 21W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen farther west near the trough from the Equator
to 04N between 21W and 34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from central Florida to
27N89W, then continues as a warm front to a 1015 mb low pressure
near 26N94W. A weak cold front reaches southward from this low to
near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring near and up to 200 nm north of the low and warm front.
Scattered showers are seen near and north of the stationary front
to the coast of Mississippi and Florida. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of the low and
warm front. Fresh to strong ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen
north of the stationary front. Gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
are evident behind the cold front. The remainder of the Gulf is
dominated by a weak high pressure ridge that stretches west-
southwestward from Southern Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
exist.

For the forecast, the low and its related warm front will move
northeastward and out of the north-central Gulf on Fri. In
response, the stationary front will retreat northward as a warm
front, while the cold front will become stationary into the
weekend. This boundary will then dissipate over northern Gulf
on Sun. Strong NE to E winds are anticipated north of the low
pressure through tonight. Over the weekend, the peripheral ridge
west of the high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will
build into the basin, bringing fairly tranquil conditions to the
basin early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details about a
gale warning.

A 1025 mb Bermuda High near 28N65W is prolonging a trade-wind
pattern across the entire Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between
this high and a 1008 Colombian Low sustains fresh to strong NE to
ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft across the central basin,
including waters near the Windward Passage but outside the Gale
Warning area. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are
seen at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will build southward and
strengthen through Sat night, causing fresh to strong trades in
the south-central basin and Windward Passage to expand and
dominate much of the central and eastern basin. Winds and seas
will begin to gradually diminish over the eastern basin Sun
through Mon as the Bermuda High retreats to the northeast.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning
in the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda
across 31N65W to near 29N73W, then continues as a stationary front
to beyond central Florida. Scattered showers are present near and
up to 150 nm north of this boundary. Farther east, a surface
trough extends southward from east of Bermuda across 31N55W
through a 1018 mb low near 27N56W to 21N56W. Aided by a
pronounced upper-level trough to the east near 54W, convergent
southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection from
20N to 29N between 48W and 55W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are
evident across the western Atlantic north of 20N betwen 56W and
the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 6
to 8 ft seas in moderate easterly swell exist at the central
Atlantic north of 20N between 45W and 56W. For the eastern
Atlantic outside the Meteo-France Gale Warning, fresh to strong
NNE to E to ESE winds and seas at 9 to 12 ft in large NE to E
swell dominate north of 20N between the Africa coast and 45W,
including the Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle
to moderate NNE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate
northeasterly swell are noted from 05N to 20N between the central
Africa coast the Lesser Antilles, including the Cabo Verde
Islands. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough and
related low pressure will drift eastward through the weekend,
inducing some fresh to locally strong N winds to the west of the
trough axis. A 1025 mb Bermuda High is going to continue shifting
southeastward today, allowing the stationary to move eastward
north of 27N through Fri. This might bring some strong NE to E
winds behind it. As this front weakens, winds and seas will
diminish for the start of next week.

$$

Chan
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