[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning...

NE-to-E gale-force winds have been pulsing, in the coastal waters
of NW Colombia between 74W and 76W, during the last few days.
Those wind speeds are forecast to be slowing down during the next
few hours. Expect strong to near gale-force NE-to-E winds, and
rough seas, from 10N to 14N between 74W and 78W off the coast of
Colombia, during the next 24 hours to 48 hours or so.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N, to 06N14W
06N27W 03N31W 02N37W. A surface trough is along 36W/38W from 02N
to 06N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward in general, and primarily
from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the central coastal sections of
Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Rough seas are in
the north central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are elsewhere in
the central one-third of the area. Slight seas are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong northerly winds are to
the northwest of the cold front. Moderate to fresh SE winds are to
the east of the cold front. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is from 26N northward between 87W and 91W. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate is elsewhere from 22N northward between
90W and the cold front.

A cold front from Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico will race
eastward today and tonight, with scattered to numerous strong
thunderstorms expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE
Gulf of Mexico. These thunderstorms may bring locally hazardous
winds and seas. Also ahead of the cold front, areas of fog will
prevail over the far northern Gulf today. Behind the cold front,
fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected until the front moves
SE of the area Sun. A period of near gale force N winds is likely
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, tonight into Sun. In the wake of the
front, high pressure will build into the region, leading to
quiescent conditions by early next week and continuing through
much of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force wind warning.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread
throughout the
area.

The pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower
pressure over Colombia will support widespread strong to near
gale trades over the south-central Caribbean through Sun. Gale
force winds offshore Colombia will diminish this morning. The
Bermuda High will shift eastward and weaken Sun night, decreasing
the tradewinds with improved conditions expected through Tue
night. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun evening
followed by fresh to locally strong N winds in its wake across the
NW Caribbean through Tue night. The front will stall and weaken
from E Cuba to E Honduras Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves through 31N26W, to 23N30W 17N40W 14N45W
09N48W. The trough is marked in the visible satellite imagery
by a thin line of low level clouds. Strong and faster cyclonic
wind flow is from 29N northward between the surface trough and
35W. Rough seas are from the line 31N20W 25N26W 22N38W 23N50W
northward. Moderate seas cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 13N to 16N between 57W and 61W
at the edge of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands from St. Lucia to
Dominica. Fresh to strong NE winds also are from 12N32W 24N46W
23N60W southward. Moderate or slower winds cover the rest of the
area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 25N northward between 20W and 30W. A 1026 mb high
pressure center is near 30N63W. Fresh anticyclonic wind flow is
from 25N southward from 60W westward.

A strong Bermuda High will support fresh trades south of 22N
today. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades
will diminish tonight through Sun. SW winds will strengthen to
fresh or strong tonight over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead
of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida
coast Sun and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda
to Haiti Mon night. Strong NW winds will follow behind the front
north of 26N Sun through Tue.

$$
mt/al
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