[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Overnight thunderstorms induced a
southward moving outflow boundary in the north-central Gulf of
Mexico. Gale to near-storm force east winds developed to the north
of the boundary offshore Louisiana. Thunderstorms have diminished
and the outflow boundary is becoming more diffuse early this
morning. Still, some gale force east or southeast winds are
expected this morning, before they decrease to fresh to strong by
midday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the northern Gulf
today into Sun. Additional strong thunderstorms are expected in
the northern and NE Gulf ahead of the front today, and these may
lead to locally hazardous winds and seas.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Within a much broader area of strong to
near near-force winds over the central Caribbean, NE to E gales
are ongoing offshore N Colombia. Seas of up to 13 ft are present
within about 240 nm o the Colombian coast between 73W and 79W.
These gales are being caused by the pressure gradient between
lower pressure over South America and a high pressure centered
near Bermuda. This high pressure will weaken and move E today,
relaxing the gradient and allowing winds to diminish below gale-
force.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends just offshore Sierra Leone to about
07N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N15W to 06N30W to 01N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 21W and
34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for portion of the north-central Gulf early this
morning.

A decaying outflow boundary is moving SE into the southeast Gulf
and is producing a cluster of moderate convection within about
90 nm of 25N85W. Elsewhere, a cold front has moved off the coast
of Texas and is positioned from from SW Louisiana to just south of
the mouth of the Rio Grande. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and within 150 nm E of the boundary, mainly N of 25N.
Increasing fresh NW winds are noted behind the front, with
generally moderate to fresh SE winds ahead of it. Seas across the
basin, except in and near the area of gales, are 2 to 5 ft. Areas
of fog prevail within about 120 nm of the northern Gulf Coast,
with patchy dense fog being observed within about 50 nm of shore,
over the cooler shelf waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will race
eastward today and tonight, with scattered to numerous strong
thunderstorms expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE
Gulf of Mexico. These thunderstorms may bring locally hazardous
winds and seas. Also ahead of the cold front, areas of fog will
prevail over the far northern Gulf today. Behind the cold front,
fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected until the front moves
SE of the area Sun. A period of near gale force N winds is likely
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, tonight into Sun. In the wake of the
front, high pressure will build into the region, leading to
quiescent conditions later Mon through much of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
the gale warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower
pressure over Colombia supports widespread strong to near gale
trades over the eastern and central basin. Sea of 8 to 11 ft are
noted between 70W and 80W, and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted east of
70W over the eastern basin. Fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Sun night, as the Bermuda High shifts eastward
and weakens, the trades will decrease, with improved conditions
expected through Tue night. A cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel Sun evening followed by fresh to locally strong N winds in
its wake across the NW Caribbean through Tue night. The front
will stall and weaken from E Cuba to E Honduras Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high pressure centered just SE of Bermuda is dominating
the SW Atlantic waters, supporting fresh easterlies S of 24N and W
of 45W, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate or less winds are
N of 24N, with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Farther east, low pressure is moving NE and weakening as it nears
the Azores, with a decaying cold front extending S from it into
local waters from 31N29W to 20N36W. E of this boundary, N of 25N
and W of 25W, scattered moderate convection is occurring. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted on both sides of this boundary N of
28N between 25W and 35W. A broader area of seas of 8 to 10 ft
encompass waters N of 24N between 25W and 45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will support fresh
trades south of 22N today. As the high weakens and shifts
eastward, the trades will diminish tonight through Sun. Beginning
tonight, SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong over the
waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front.
The front should reach the Florida coast Sun and quickly move
eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Haiti Mon night. Strong
NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun through
Tue.

$$
Konarik
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