[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
1030 mb high pressure system near Bermuda and the Colombian low
will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of
northwestern Colombia through Fri night. Seas are forecast to
peak around 14 ft during the period of gale force winds. Winds and
seas will diminish this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone-
Liberia border and continues SW to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from
06N19W to 05N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 07N and east of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the central Louisiana coast to
Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is present north of 25N and between the front and 86W, with
locally strong winds in the more robust thunderstorms. S and E of
the front, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail. Behind the front, mainly gentle N winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft are present. Across cooler shelf waters N of 27N, patchy
fog has developed.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will remain
over the far NW Gulf of Mexico today, then dissipate tonight.
Areas of fog will prevail over the far northern Gulf to the east
of this front into tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas
coast Sat, then spill SE through the basin, exiting the area Sun.
Winds behind the front will generally be NW to N fresh to strong,
except for near gale N winds near Veracruz Sat night into Sun. In
the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are forecast to
become quiescent Mon into Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea.

A broad ridge over the NW Atlantic extends southward into the
Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to
near gale-force easterly winds over much of the basin outside of
the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft. A
surface trough, the remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from
Martinique to 72W along 15N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda
High and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong
to near gale trades, including over the Windward, Mona, and
Anegada Passages, through Sat night. Gales will pulse tonight
offshore Colombia. By Sun, as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and
weakens, the trades will diminish, with improved conditions
through Tue. Sun night, a cold front should reach the Yucatan
Channel followed by fresh N winds in its wake across the NW
Caribbean Mon into Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low pressure is centered near 30N35W, producing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within about 150
nm of the center. A surface trough extends SW from this low to the
Windward Islands. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad
ridging, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure centered near
Bermuda. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong
easterly winds south of 25N and west of 45W. Seas in these waters
are 6-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. Patchy fog has
developed within about 90 nm of the NE Florida coast.

For the forecast W of 55W, the strong Bermuda High will force
fresh to strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N
today. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades
will diminish tonight through Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds
will strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the
Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach
the Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward,
extending from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to
strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun
through Mon night.

$$
Konarik
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