[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
1030 mb high pressure system near Bermuda and the Colombian low
will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of
northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas are
forecast to peak around 14 ft during the period of gale force
winds. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N19W to 05N30W and to 00N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to Veracruz,
Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present north of 25N and between the front and 87W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force
southerly winds in association with the strongest convection. Moderate
to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of 25N and
east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas are present
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually
dissipate Fri. Patchy fog will occur over coastal waters of the
northern Gulf to the east of this front. A second, stronger cold
front will reach the Texas shore Fri night. It should move
steadily southeastward, extending from the Florida panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche Sat night, and moving away from the Gulf Sun
afternoon. Winds behind the front will generally be NW to N fresh
to strong, except for near gale N winds near Veracruz Sat night
into Sun. In the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are
forecast to become quiescent on Mon into Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea.

A broad ridge over the NW Atlantic extends southward into the
Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to
near gale-force easterly winds over much of the basin outside of
the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft. A
surface trough, the remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from
Martinique to 74W along 15N. Shallow pockets of moisture are seen
north of the boundary producing isolated showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong to
near gale trades, including over the Windward, Mona, and Anegada
Passages, for the next two days. Late night and early morning NE
gales will continue for tonight and Fri night just north of
Colombia. By Sat as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens,
the trades will diminish into Tue. On Sun night, a cold front
should reach the Yucatan Channel followed by fresh N winds in its
wake across the NW Caribbean Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N33W and
continues southward to a 1017 mb low pressure system near 28N34W
and then southwestward to the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N and between
30W and 39W. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad
ridging, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system near Bermuda.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds
south of 26N and west of 45W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will force fresh
to strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N into Fri.
As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will
diminish Fri night through Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will
strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the
Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach
the Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward,
extending from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to
strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun into
Mon night.

$$
Delgado
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