[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
1030 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic and the Colombian
low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the
coast of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas
are forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft during the period of gale
force winds. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. The ITCZ
extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W southwestward to
05N21W to 02N32W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
off the coast of Liberia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb high centered just S of
Bermuda extends SW across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
which is providing gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas E
of 90W. Over the western basin, a former cold front has stalled
from southern Louisiana SW to just S of Tampico, Mexico. Ahead of
the front, winds are light to gentle and W of the front winds are
northerly and moderate along the E Mexico offshore waters. Upper
level diffluent flow and moisture inflow from the Caribbean is
firing up heavy showers and tstms over the north-central Gulf
waters where gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are
likely.

For the forecast, the front over the W Gulf waters will move
slowly eastward before becoming stationary tonight and dissipating
on Fri. A second, stronger cold front will reach the Texas shore
Fri night. It should move steadily southeastward, extending from
the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Sat night, and moving
away from the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds behind the front will
generally be NW to N fresh to strong, except for near gale N winds
near Veracruz on Sun. In the extended range, conditions across
the Gulf are likely to become quiescent on Mon and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning for the SW Caribbean.

High pressure of 1030 mb centered just S of Bermuda extends a
ridge southward into the northern Caribbean Sea. The associated
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the
E extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough over Colombia
continues to support mainly strong to near gale-force winds in the
central Caribbean where recent altimeter data indicate wave
heights peaking in the 13 fts. Winds are fresh to strong in the E
and SW basin with seas in the 8-11 ft range while moderate to
fresh winds dominate the NW waters, except for strong winds in the
western Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda
High and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong
to near gale trades - including over the Windward, Mona, and
Anegada Passages - for the next two days. Late night/early morning
NE gales will continue for tonight and Fri night just north of
Colombia. By Sat as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens,
the trades will diminish into Tue. On Sun night, a cold front
should reach the Yucatan Channel followed by fresh N winds in its
wake across the NW Caribbean on Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging. In the NE
Atlantic, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge
and lower pressures near the coast of NW Africa sustain fresh to
locally strong easterly winds north of 23N and east of 28W. Seas
are 5-8 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will force
strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N tonight. As
the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will
diminish Fri into Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will
strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the Bahamas
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the
Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward, extending
from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to strong NW
winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun and Mon.

$$
Ramos
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