[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
1033 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic and the Colombian
low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the
coast of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas
are forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft during the period of gale
force winds. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. The ITCZ
extends southwestward from 06N13W to 01N35W. Currently, there is
no significant convection to report.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 mb surface low is analyzed near 28N96W. A cold front
extends from the low to 24N97W, while a warm front is from the low
to 30N93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 24N and W
of 94W. Fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of these features,
with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails with
moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the frontal system will reach from SE Louisiana
to Tampico, Mexico tonight before stalling. Scattered
thunderstorms are likely across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
today. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri night,
extend from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz, Mexico late Sat, and
from Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Fresh
NW to N winds will follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico,
with strong to near- gale force winds in the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning for the SW Caribbean.

The 1033 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic extends
southward into the Caribbean Sea. The dry airmass progressing
across the basin only allows for a pockets of low-level moisture
and isolated, shallow showers. Outside of the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds are
prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
6-12 ft, with the highest seas in the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
to support strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the
basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras,
through Thu night. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast at
nighttime through the early morning hours near the coast of
Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Seas will
gradually subside over the weekend as a cold front approaches
the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N32W and
continues southwestward to 21N41W. Latest satellite imagery
depict scattered moderate convection ahead of the front to 27W
and north of 22N. Fresh to strong anticyclonic winds prevail west
of a line from 31N31W to 06N55W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft.
The exception is under the ridge, mainly north of 28N and between
41W and 66W, where winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-8
ft.

The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging. In the NE
Atlantic, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge
and lower pressures near the coast of NW Africa sustain fresh to
locally strong easterly winds north of 23N and east of 28W. Seas
are 5-8 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure will continue to
bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S
of 25N through today. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease
tonight through Fri night as the high pressure weakens. Looking
ahead, the next cold front should emerge off the coast of NE
Florida by Sun.

$$
Landsea
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