[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will continue
moving across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the front will reach gale-force
speeds in the far west part of the central Gulf waters offshore
Tampico tonight and offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with
these winds are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with highest seas
peaking on Sat night offshore Veracruz. These conditions will
subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of
the front.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W to 06N17W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues to 02S41W. Scattered showers are noted in
the vicinity of both boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Gale Warning.

The cold front mentioned in the section above extends from 30N86W
to 26N97W. A surface trough extends from 24N96W to 20N95W.
Another trough is analyzed from 23N90W to 19N92W. Abundant cloud
cover, the majority due to a very active subtropical jet stream
branch that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico, is noted over the vast majority of the
Gulf. Patches of rain with embedded scattered showers are possible
from 23N to 27N. Mostly gentle winds are over most of the basin,
except for fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas
are generally 3-5 ft, except for 4-7 ft seas in the north-central
and NW Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by early Sat and southeast of the
area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will
follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are
expected in the far west central Gulf near Tampico tonight and in
the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Strong high
pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to
strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by
ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale force
northeast to east trade winds along with seas to 12 ft are found
across the south-central part of the basin, while fresh trade
winds are present in the eastern southwestern Caribbean areas
along with seas in the waters with seas in the 6-9 ft range due to
an east swell. Latest ASCAT data passes depict gentle to moderate
trade winds in the northwestern Caribbean. Seas there are in the
3-5 ft range due to a southeast swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
prevail across the south central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh
to strong trades with moderate to rough seas will prevail east of
the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front will move into the
northwestern Caribbean on Sat, then become stationary from near
the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong
high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next
week, increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale
conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun
night through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a cold front extends across the western Atlantic
from 31N75W to 26N79W. Scattered showers and fresh to strong winds are
noted with this front. To the east, a stationary front extends
from 31N52W to 28N67W. A 1029 mb high pressure center that is
analyzed near 28N37W. A cold front is analyzed E of the Canary
Islands from 31N09W to 24N19W.

A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and the
eastern Atlantic cold front supports fresh to strong north to
northeast winds N of 20N and E of 24W. Seas with these winds are
peaking to around 11 ft. In the deep tropics, fresh to strong
trade winds are present S of 20N and east of the Lesser Antilles
to near 25W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-11 ft.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere N of 20N, except for
light to gentle winds are near the 1029 mb high. Seas are 5-8 ft
N of 20N, with the exception near the cold front in the western
part of the area where seas are 5-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move across the
northern and central waters through late Sat, with fresh to strong
winds on either side of the front. Another cold front will move
across the waters offshore northern Florida today. This front is
forecast to reach the far southern waters by late Sun and become
stationary. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this
front will bring an increase in winds and seas early next week.

$$
ERA
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