[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force trade winds offshore
northwestern Colombia will diminish to just below gale-force
around 12Z this morning as the culprit tight gradient slackens
some. Seas with these winds are 9-12 ft. Seas will only subside a
little through this evening.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has recently
entered the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds
behind the front will reach near gale-force speeds in the far
west part of the central Gulf waters offshore Tampico tonight
and offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with these winds
are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with seas peaking slightly
higher on Sat night to 13 ft offshore Veracruz. These conditions
will subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the
wake of the front.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends southwestward to 04N20W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 02N30W and to 01N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 28W-33W, within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between
18W-23W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
gale warning.

Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered in the eastern Gulf
near Tampa, Florida. Meanwhile, a cold front is just inland the
northern Gulf coast poised to move offshore. A trough extends
from 26N94W to 23N95W and to the central Bay of Campeche.
Another trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Abundant cloud cover, the majority due to a very active
subtropical jet stream branch that extends from the eastern
Pacific Ocean northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, is noted
over the vast majority of the Gulf. Patches of rain with
embedded scattered showers are possible from 21N to 26N between
91W-97W and from 24N to 27N between 84W-91W. Patches of mostly
dense fog are being observed along the immediate coastal areas
of Texas. Mostly gentle winds are over the basin, except for
fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas are
generally 3-5 ft, except for 4-7 ft seas in the north-central
and NW Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure of 1018 mb that is just
west of Tamp will shift E of the basin early this morning as a
strong cold front that is just inland the northern Gulf coast
drops south into the far northern Gulf. The front will reach from
near Apalachicola, Florida to Brownsville, Texas during the
morning, from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf by early Fri
evening, from the Straits of Florida to near the northwest Yucatan
Peninsula and to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat and to
just southeast of the area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds
and rough seas will follow in behind the front. Gale force winds
and very rough seas are expected in the far west central Gulf
near Tampico tonight and in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat
and Sat night. Looking ahead into early next week, strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will allow for fresh to strong
southeast to south winds over most of the basin. These winds
diminish Tue and Tue night as the high pressure weakens and
shifts E.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by
ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale force
northeast to east trade winds along with rough seas to 10 ft are
found across the central part of the basin, while fresh trade
winds are present in the eastern southwestern Caribbean areas
along with seas in the waters with seas in the 6-9 ft range due
to an east swell. Overnight ASCAT data passes show gentle to
moderate trade winds in the northwestern Caribbean. Seas there
are in the 3-5 ft range due to a southeast swell.

For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined
with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through tonight. The high pressure will also cause fresh
to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the
Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to move into
the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reach from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and become stationary from near the
Windward Passage to near Jamaica and to near northern Belize on
Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas are
anticipated behind this front. Strong high pressure will build
over the western Atlantic early next week, with the resultant
tight gradient likely leading to fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas across the central and eastern basin through early
next week, with gale conditions possible near the coast of
Colombia Mon night and Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from near 31N50W to 27N46W,
where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and
to South Florida. A recently formed stronger cold front is over
the far western part. It extends from a 1011 mb low that is
just offshore the North Carolina coast, south-southwestward to
31N79W and to near West Palm Beach Florida. An overnight ASCAT
data pass revealed fresh to strong winds on either side of this
front north of 27N between 75W-80W. In the far eastern Atlantic,
the tail-end of a cold front extends from near 31N10W
southwestward to 25N20W, then dissipating to 23N22W. In between
this front and the first one mentioned above is a 1026 mb high
pressure center that is analyzed near 28N42W. A tight pressure
gradient between the high pressure and the eastern Atlantic cold
front supports fresh to strong north to northeast winds north of
about 15N and between 18W and a line from 31N26W to 15N39W. Seas
with these winds are peaking to around 11 ft. In the deep
tropics, fresh to strong trade winds are present south of 21N
and east of the Lesser Antilles to near 25W. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate trade
winds are elsewhere south of 25N, while gentle winds are north
of 24N, except for light and variable winds are near the 1026 mb
high. Seas are 6-8 ft with the gentle to moderate trade winds
and 4-6 ft north 24N, with the exception near the cold front in
the western part of the area where seas are 5-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front that extends from
31N50W to 27N64W will shift east this morning while weakening.
The recently formed cold front over the western part of the
area will sweep across the northern and central waters through
late Sat, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. A
strong cold front will move across the waters offshore northern
Florida today. This front is forecast to reach the far southern
waters by late Sun and become stationary. Strong high pressure
building in behind this front will result in increasing winds
and building seas north of about 27N into early next week. A
tight gradient associated to the high pressure will allow for
northeast to east winds to increase to fresh to strong speeds
over the waters south of about 27N early next week.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net