[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force trade winds offshore
northwestern Colombia will diminish to just below gale-force
around 12Z this morning as the culprit tight gradient slackens
some. Seas with these winds are 9-12 ft. Seas will only subside a
little through this evening.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has recently
entered the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind
the front will reach near gale gale-force speeds in the far part
of the central Gulf waters offshore Tampico tonight and offshore
Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with these winds are forecast to
build to 8-12 ft, with seas peaking slightly higher on Sat night
to 13 ft offshore Veracruz. These conditions will subside Sun as
high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of the front.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends southwestward to 04N20W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 02N30W and to 01N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 28W-33W, within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between
18W-23W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
gale warning.

Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered in the eastern Gulf
near Tampa, Florida, meanwhile a cold front is just inland the
northern Gulf coast poised to move offshore. A trough extends
from 26N94W to 23N95W and to the central Bay of Campeche. Another
trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant
cloud cover, the majority due to a very active subtropical jet
stream branch that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean
northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, is noted over the vast
majority of the Gulf. Patches of rain with embedded scattered
showers are possible from 21N to 26N between 91W-97W and from 24N
to 27N between 84W-91W. Patches of mostly dense fog are being
observed along the immediate coastal areas of Texas. Mostly gentle
winds are over the basin, except for fresh to strong northerly
winds behind the front. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, except for 4-7
ft seas in the north-central and NW Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure of 1018 mb that is just
west of Tamp will shift E of the basin early this morning as a
strong cold front that is just inland the northern Gulf coast
drops south into the far northern Gulf. The front will reach from
near Apalachicola, Florida to Brownsville, Texas during the
morning, from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf by early Fri
evening, from the Straits of Florida to near the northwest Yucatan
Peninsula and to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat and to
just southeast of the area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds
and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale force winds and
very rough seas are expected in the far west central Gulf near
Tampico tonight and in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat
night. Looking ahead into early next week, strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will allow for fresh to strong southeast to
south over most of the basin. These winds diminish Tue and Tue
night as the high pressure weakens and shifts E.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by
ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale northeast
to east trade winds along with rough seas to 10 ft are found
across the central part of the basin while fresh trade winds
are present in the eastern southwestern Caribbean areas along
with seas in the waters with seas in the 6-9 ft range due to and
east swell. Overnight ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate
trade winds in the northwestern Caribbean. Seas there are in the
3-5 ft range due to a southeast swell.

For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined
with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through tonight. The high pressure will also cause fresh
to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the
Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to move into
the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reach from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and become stationary from near the
Windward Passage to near Jamaica and to near northern Belize on
Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas are
anticipated behind this front. Strong high pressure will build
over the western Atlantic early next week, with the resultant
tight gradient likely leading to fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas across the central and eastern basin through early
next week, with gale conditions possible near the coast of
Colombia Mon night and Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from near 31N50W to 27N46W,
where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and
to South Florida. A recently formed stronger cold front is over
the far western part. It extends from a 1011 mb low that is
just offshore the North Carolina coast, south-southwestward to
31N79W and to near West Palm Beach Florida. An overnight ASCAT
data pass revealed fresh to strong winds on either side of this
front north of 27N between 75W-80W. In the far eastern Atlantic,
the tail- end of a cold front extends from near 31N10W,
southwestward to 25N20W, then dissipating to 23N22W. In the
between this front and the first one mentioned above is a 1026 mb
high pressure analyzed near 28N42W. A tight pressure gradient
between the high pressure and eastern Atlantic cold front supports
fresh to strong northeast to winds north of about 15N and between
18W and a line from 31N26W to 15N39W. Seas with these winds are
peaking to around 11 ft. In the deep tropics fresh to strong trade
winds are present south of 21N and east of the Lesser Antilles to
near 25W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-10 ft.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere south of 25N while
gentle winds are north of 24N, except light and variable winds are
near the 1026 mb high. Seas are 6-8 ft with the gentle to
moderate trade winds and 4-6 ft north 24N. except near the cold
front in the western part of the area, where seas are 5-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front that extends from
31N50W to 27N64W will shift east this morning while weakening.
The recently formed cold front over the western part of the
area will sweep across the northern and central waters through
late Sat, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. Another
cold front will move across the waters offshore northern Florida
today. This front is forecast to reach the far southern waters by
late Sun and become stationary. Strong high pressure building in
behind this front will result in increasing winds and building
seas north of about 27N into early next week. A tight gradient
associated to the high pressure will allow for northeast to east
winds to increase to fresh to strong speeds over the waters south
of about 27N early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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