[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Trade winds offshore northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force tonight through early Friday morning. Seas will peak at 10
to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Winds should decrease below
gale-force from late Friday morning through the afternoon, but
seas will remain rough.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Friday
morning and continue moving southward through late Friday night.
NW to N winds behind this front are expected to reach gale-force
across the west-central Gulf on Friday and southwestern Gulf
Friday night and Saturday. Combined seas will build to between 8
and 11 ft during this period. Afterward, fresh to strong NE to
SE winds and rough seas will persist through Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, then reaches southwestward to 06N15.5W. The
ITCZ continues southwestward from 06N15.5W to 02.5N29W to
0.5N44W. Scattered showers within 150 nm either side of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a high over the
Carolinas coast to near Tampico, Mexico. This surface ridge is
supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas to 4
ft across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will support
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds in the basin through
early Fri morning. A strong cold front will push into the far
northern Gulf late tonight, reach from near Apalachicola,
Florida to Brownsville early Fri, from the Florida Keys to the
SW Gulf by early Fri evening, from the Straits of Florida to
near the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and to the central Bay of
Campeche by early Sat and to just southeast of the area by late
Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will follow behind
the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in
the far west-central Gulf near Tampico and in the SW Gulf
offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Looking ahead into early
next week, strong high pressure in the wake of the front should
keep fresh to strong winds across the entire Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by
ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale NE to E
winds and rough seas to 10 ft are found across the central part
of the basin while fresh trades covers the E and SW Caribbean
waters with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. In the NW Caribbean,
trades are gentle to moderate with seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined
with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds off northwestern Colombia
will pulse to gale-force tonight. The high pressure will also
cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just
east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is
forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reach
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and
become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near Jamaica
and to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong northeast
winds and rough seas are anticipated behind this front. Strong
high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next
week, with the resultant tight gradient likely leading to fresh
to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and
eastern basin through early next week, with gale conditions
possible near the coast of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across
31N53.5W to 29N60W, then continues as a stationary front to the
Upper Florida Keys. Over the E subtropical Atlantic waters a
cold front extends from 31N13.5W SW to 26.5N18W where it starts
to dissipate. While, a surface ridge covers the remaining
subtropical waters being anchored by a 1028 mb high near 28N38W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the E Atlantic cold
front is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 11 ft
between 25W and 35W, N of 18N. In the tropics, between 00N and
18 N, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas to 10 ft as well.
Otherwise, trades are moderate to fresh S of 24N and E of the
southern Bahamas, except for locally strong winds N of
Hispaniola.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary
boundary will begin to lift northward as a warm front. A strong
cold front is expected to move across the waters offshore
northern Florida on Fri. The front is forecast to reach the far
southern waters by late Sun and become stationary. Strong high
pressure building in behind this front will result in increasing
winds and building seas north of about 27N into early next week.
A tight gradient associated to the high pressure will allow for
northeast to east winds to increase to fresh to strong over the
waters south of 26N early next week.

$$
KRV
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