[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Trade winds offshore northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force tonight through early Friday morning. Seas will peak at 10
to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Winds should decrease below
gale-force from late Friday morning through the afternoon, but
seas will remain rough.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Friday
morning and continue moving southward through late Friday night.
NW to N winds behind this front are expected to reach gale-force
across the west-central Gulf on Friday and southwestern Gulf
Friday night and Saturday. Combined seas will build to between 8
and 11 ft during this period. Afterward, fresh to strong NE to SE
winds and rough seas will persist through Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, then reaches southwestward to 06N14W. The ITCZ
continues southwestward from 06N14W to 02N30W to 01N49W. Scattered
showers within 135 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a high over the Florida
Panhandle just W of the Florida Big Bend to the western basin near
94W. This surface ridge is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and slight seas to 4 ft across the entire basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging will support gentle to moderate
E to SE winds for the entire Gulf through early Fri morning.
Afterward, a cold front will sink southward across the northern
Gulf, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of
Campeche by Fri morning, and from the Florida Straits to eastern
Bay of Campeche by Fri afternoon. Fresh to near-gale winds and
rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale-force winds and very
rough seas are expected at the west-central and southwestern Gulf
Fri night through Sat. For early next week, strong high pressure
in the wake of the front should keep fresh to strong winds across
the entire Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by
ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale NE to E
winds and rough seas to 10 ft are found across the central part
of the basin while fresh trades covers the E and SW Caribbean
waters with seas in the 5-8 ft range. In the NW Caribbbean, trades
are gentle to moderate with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined
with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds off northwestern Colombia will
pulse to gale-force tonight. The high pressure will also cause
fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of
the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to reach
the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reaching from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and then stalling from near the
Windward Passage to southwest of Jamaica on Sun. Fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas are anticipated behind this front. Strong
high pressure east of this front is expected to bring fresh to
strong winds and building seas across the central and eastern
basin through early next week with gale conditions possible near
the coast of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across
31N58W to 25N74W, then continues as a stationary front to western
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the cold
front north of 30N between 57W and 62W. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas are found behind the frontal
boundary to the east coast of Florida. Ahead of the front, a 1029
mb high pressure centered near 29N40W is supporting moderate or
less anticyclonic flow and moderate to rough seas in mixed
moderate swell north of 20N between 35W and the frontal boundary.

Farther east, mid to upper-level troughing is enhancing scattered
moderate convection along a weak cold front north of 22N between
17W and 26W. Mainly fresh N to NE winds and rough seas in large
northerly swell persists north of 20N between 20W and 35W. For the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and rough seas prevail between 25W and the
Lesser Antilles/southwest Bahamas with strong winds observed in a
recent scatterometer pass from 15N to 19N between 40W and 50W.

For the forecast, by this evening, the entire portion of the cold
front over the western Atlantic will become stationary and then
begin to lift northward as a warm front ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on
Fri. This second front will cause winds and seas to build once
again north of 27N into early next week. High pressure building
east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to
rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and
Leeward Islands through Fri.

$$
Ramos
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