[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Trade winds offshore northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force tonight through early Friday morning. Seas will peak at 10
to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Winds should decrease below
gale-force from late Friday morning through the afternoon, but
seas will remain rough.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Friday
morning and continue moving southward through late Friday night.
NW to N winds behind this front are expected to reach gale-force
across the west-central Gulf on Friday and southwestern Gulf
Friday night and Saturday. Combined seas will build to between 8
and 11 ft during this period. Afterward, fresh to strong NE to SE
winds and rough seas will persist through Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, then reaches southwestward to 07N14W. The ITCZ
continues southwestward from 07N14W to 02N50W. Widely scattered
showers are seen south of the monsoon trough to 03N between the
African coast and 13W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 16W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.

A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf of Mexico
from 28N97W to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Isolated showers are
observed along this feature north of 23N and west of 91W.
Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from a high over
the Carolinas coast to near Tampico, Mexico. This surface ridge is
supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds for the entire Gulf through early Fri
morning. Afterward, a cold front will sink southward across the
northern Gulf, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the western
Bay of Campeche by late Fri morning, and from the Florida Straits
to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri afternoon. Fresh to
near-gale winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale-
force winds and very rough seas are expected at the west-central
and southwestern Gulf Fri night through Sat. For early next week,
strong high pressure in the wake of the front should keep fresh to
strong winds across the entire Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by
ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale NE to E
winds and rough seas to 10 ft are found across the central part
of the basin while fresh trades covers the E and SW Caribbean
waters with seas in the 5-8 ft range. In the NW Caribbbean, trades
are gentle to moderate with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined
with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds off northwestern Colombia will
pulse to gale-force tonight. The high pressure will also cause
fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of
the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to reach
the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reaching from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and then stalling from near the
Windward Passage to southwest of Jamaica on Sun. Fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas are anticipated behind this front. Strong
high pressure east of this front is expected to bring fresh to
strong winds and building seas across the central and eastern
basin through early next week with gale conditions possible near
the coast of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across
31N58W to 25N74W, then continues as a stationary front to western
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the cold
front north of 30N between 57W and 62W. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas are found behind the frontal
boundary to the east coast of Florida. Ahead of the front, a 1029
mb high pressure centered near 29N40W is supporting moderate or
less anticyclonic flow and moderate to rough seas in mixed
moderate swell north of 20N between 35W and the frontal boundary.

Farther east, mid to upper-level troughing is enhancing scattered
moderate convection along a weak cold front north of 22N between
17W and 26W. Mainly fresh N to NE winds and rough seas in large
northerly swell persists north of 20N between 20W and 35W. For the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and rough seas prevail between 25W and the
Lesser Antilles/southwest Bahamas with strong winds observed in a
recent scatterometer pass from 15N to 19N between 40W and 50W.

For the forecast, by this evening, the entire portion of the cold
front over the western Atlantic will become stationary and then
begin to lift northward as a warm front ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on
Fri. This second front will cause winds and seas to build once
again north of 27N into early next week. High pressure building
east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to
rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and
Leeward Islands through Fri.

$$
Ramos
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