[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South
America will continue to support fresh to strong NE trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Winds will
pulse to gale force off the coast of NW Colombia tonight until
early Thu and then Thursday night. Seas in the strongest winds
will peak near 14 ft.

Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 05N10W and continues westward to 05N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N18W to 03N33W and to 03N51W. No deep convection is
observed near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to NE Yucatan. The
continental cold air flowing over the warmer waters of the Gulf
of Mexico result in stratocumulus clouds covering most of the
basin. No deep convection is present with this cloudmass. The 1031
mb high pressure over the Mississippi Valley dominates the Gulf
waters behind the front. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and the front sustain fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the
Gulf. The strongest winds and highest seas are present in the SW
Gulf. However, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are found in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters
producing moderate to fresh northerly winds, except in the SW Gulf
where fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail. The high pressure
will move eastward towards the Carolinas by this evening. As a
result, winds will veer to the E and SE with improving marine
conditions. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by late
Thu, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico by
Fri morning, and the far SE Gulf by Fri night. Gale-force winds
and building seas are expected over the SW Gulf, in the wake of
the front, Fri night into Sat morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

A cold front is approaching the NW Caribbean Sea, stretching the
Florida Straits to NE Yucatan. No deep convection is evident on
latest satellite imagery along this boundary. However, a surface
trough along the northern coast of Honduras and low-level moisture
moving westward with the trade winds support a few showers in the
NW Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1031 mb
high pressure system over the central Atlantic.

The pressure gradient between the previously-mentioned ridge and
lower pressures in northern South America support strong to near
gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean.
This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas
in these waters are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas
are found off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas
of 5-8 ft are noted in the north-central Caribbean and Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are
present in the eastern and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the nighttime and early morning hours through Thu
night. The high pressure will also cause fresh to strong trades
with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N72W and
continues southwestward to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate
convection is seen ahead of the front and north of 26N. The
pressure gradient between the 1031 mb high pressure system in the
central Atlantic and the aforementioned front support fresh to
strong SW winds ahead of the front to 59W and north of 26N. Seas
in these waters are 6-10 ft with the highest seas occurring near
31N69W. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted
behind the front.

Farther east, a weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near
31N30W and continues southwestward to 26N42W, where it becomes a
stationary front to 24N53W. No deep convection is noted near this
boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 7-11 ft are
found north of the cold front, especially east of 40W. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds are evident south of 22N and west of
35W, along with seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front in the western Atlantic
will move eastward and extend from 31N65W to the central Bahamas
and western Cuba this afternoon, then from 31N57W to the central
Bahamas on Thu morning. It should finally become stationary and
dissipate across the western Atlantic Thu afternoon into evening.
Fresh to strong winds on either side of the front will shift
eastward across the western Atlantic through early this evening
while diminishing. High pressure building east of the front is
going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the
southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands through
Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the
northeast Florida offshore waters on Fri. This will cause winds
and seas to build once again near this front north of 27N.

$$
Delgado
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