[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Fresh to strong northeasterly trade winds off the coast of
northwestern Colombia are going to pulse to gale-force until mid
morning today, then tonight and possibly Thursday night. Seas in
the strongest winds will peak between 11 and 14 ft.

Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Sierra Leone/Liberia
border, then runs west-southwestward to 06N16W. An ITCZ continues
from 06N16W through 03.5N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 0.5N43W.
Widely scattered showers are seen up to 100 nm along either side
of the ITCZ. There is no significant convection present near the
monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches southwestward from the Florida Straits to
the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 80 nm northwest of
this boundary. Convergent northerly winds farther behind the front
are causing patchy showers across the east-central and south-
central Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N winds and
seas of 8 to 12 ft are present at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist at the northwestern
Gulf. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
very rough seas will persist behind the aforementioned cold front
across much of Gulf until mid morning, except the northeastern
Gulf where gentle to moderate winds are evident. Starting mid
morning, winds and seas at the central and northeastern Gulf will
steadily improve. The front will exit the Gulf late this morning,
which should allow winds and seas to gradually subside at the
southeastern Gulf late this afternoon and evening. Afterward, the
next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Fri
morning and move southward across the basin through late Fri night
into Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and
moderate to rough seas. Gale-force winds and rough seas are
possible behind the front at the western Bay of Campeche Fri night
and Sat afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A surface ridge northeast of the Caribbean Sea near 25N continues
to support trade winds across the entire basin. Convergent trades
are producing widely scattered showers at the Gulf of Honduras and
eastern basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale
ENE to E winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found at the south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
dominate the northwestern and west-central basin. Fresh to strong
ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail elsewhere of the
Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, tight gradient between the high pressure NE of
the basin and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade
winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the nighttime and early morning hours for early this
morning and tonight, and possibly Thu night. Tight gradient will
also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just
east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from 31N69W across the
northwest Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are flaring up near and up to 120 nm
northwest of this front. A weaker cold front at the central
Atlantic runs southwestward from a 1017 mb low at 31N35W to
23N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up
to 100 nm southeast of this boundary. A surface trough curves
southwestward from near the Canary Islands to 20N31W. Patchy
showers are present near and up to 200 nm northwest of this
feature. Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered
showers from 12N to 16N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found
north of 27N between 60W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast.
To the south, moderate to locally fresh E to SE to SW winds and 6
to 8 ft seas dominate from 20N to 27N between 50W and the Bahamas.
At the central Atlantic north of 27N between 45W and 60W, gentle
to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft persist. Toward
the eastern Atlantic between 35W and 45W, fresh to strong N to
ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are evident north of 26N. While
gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to ENE winds with 6 to 8
ft seas are noted from 05N to 26N. For the tropical Atlantic,
fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft
prevail from 05N to 20N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, the aforementioned first cold front will move
eastward and extend from 31N65W to the central Bahamas and western
Cuba this afternoon, then from 31N57W to the central Bahamas on
Thu morning. It should finally become stationary and dissipate
across the western Atlantic Thu afternoon into evening. Fresh to
strong W to NW winds and rough seas behind this front north of 27N
will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through early
this evening. High pressure building east of the front is going to
keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast
Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands through Fri. Looking
ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the northeast
Florida offshore waters Fri evening and then tracks eastward this
weekend. This will cause winds and seas to build once again near
this front north of 27N.

$$

Chan
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