[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
A 998 mb occluded low pressure is near 33N38W. NW strong to strong
gale winds east and south of this low will maintain large swell
north of 23N and east of 48W. Combined with wind waves, seas in
this area will range from 12 to 21 ft with the higher end being
north of 28N. Later this afternoon, NW winds will subside to
between strong and near-gale as the occluded low gradually
weakens. Nevertheless, rough to very rough seas will persist
through early Mon morning. As the low moves northeastward late Mon
morning, seas are expected subside below 12 ft Mon afternoon. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Sherbro Island, Sierra
Leone, then extends southwestward to 05N20W. An ITCZ continues
from 05N20W through 04N35W to northeast of Belem, Brazil at 00N46W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon
trough from 02N to 06N between 10W and 20W, and up to 100 nm along
either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches southwestward from the Florida Straits
across the eastern end of Cuba to beyond the Yucatan Channel.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
near and up to 100 nm northwest of this boundary, including the
Florida Keys. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
seen across the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits.
A 1022 mb high over New Orleans is supporting gentle E to SE winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas north of the
stationary front will linger across the southeastern Gulf today.
The stationary front will lift north as a weak warm front over the
eastern Gulf Mon. Meanwhile, another frontal boundary will stall
along the Texas coast tonight through Mon morning before pushing
southeastward as a cold front starting Mon afternoon. A weak low
pressure will form along this front over the west-central Gulf,
and track northeastward. In response, strong to near-gale
northerly winds and rough seas will follow this frontal system
across the Gulf late Tue through Wed. Winds may reach gale force
over the far west-central and southwestern Gulf along the coast of
Mexico Tue and Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front lies across the Yucatan Channel and east coast
of Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered showers are noted over the
Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a surface ridge near 25N65W is
sustaining trade winds across much of the basin. Convergent trade
winds are triggering widely scattered showers near Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft seas are present at the south-central basin. Moderate with
locally fresh easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the
north- central and eastern basin. Gentle ENE to SE winds and seas
at 3 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift
north of the region as a warm front on Mon. High pressure building
north of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas across the central basin from tonight through midweek.
These winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to near-gale
force during the nights. Trade winds across the eastern basin will
be mostly fresh. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the Gales and
Significant Swell in the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front reaches southwestward from 31N69W to 27N75W, then
continues as a stationary front across the northwest Bahamas and
Great Bahama Bank. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and
up to 150 nm northwest of this boundary. Another cold front curves
westward from a triple point near 32N34W across 26N44W to 29N53W.
Farther southeast, a surface trough curves southwestward from the
Azores across 31N29W through 23N45W to 25N56W. These features are
causing scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 24W
and 36W. A stationary front reaches southwestward from southeast
of Madeira across 31N15W and the Canary Islands to 18N35W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along
and up to 80 nm along either side of this feature. Convergent
trade winds are triggering widely scattered showers from 11N to
20N between 49W and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gales and Significant Swell area mentioned in the
Special Features section, moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas
of 8 to 10 ft are present from 21N to 25N between 35W and 46W.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SW to NW winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas dominate north of 25N between 65W and the Georgia-northeast
Florida coast. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate with locally
fresh ENE to E trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident from the
Equator to 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles, and also from
the Equator to 13N between 35W and 50W. For the remainder of the
Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas
of 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed swell prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds and rough seas
behind the front north of 28N will diminish by noon today. A
period of fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected north
of the stationary front near the NW Bahamas tonight. The cold
front will reach from 31N63W to 27N75W late tonight. Afterward,
the cold front will continue moving eastward across of the western
Atlantic through Tue, while the stationary front will lift north
as a weak warm front Mon. In their wake, a high pressure building
southeast of Bermuda is going to cause increasing trade winds and
building seas near the Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands Mon
night through Tue night. Looking ahead, another cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach from just east
of Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed. This will cause
increasing winds and seas north of 27N once again.

$$

Chan
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