[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
Persistent large northerly swell is going to sustain seas of 12
to 16 ft, north of 25N and east of 50W through late tonight. Two
low-pressure systems are expected to merge into one near 33N38W
late tonight or early Sun morning. This new low will deepen
rapidly while moving southeastward, causing strong to gale-force
NW winds north of 28N and east of 48W late tonight. The
combination of existing northerly swell and building wind waves
will cause seas north of 26N and west of 48W to peak at 14 to 21
ft. Once the low begins to gradually weaken and move east of the
area by late Sun afternoon, winds will diminish by Mon morning.
Seas will slowly subside through Mon also. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone, continuing southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues
southwestward from 05N20W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01.5N to 06N east of 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches southwestward from the Florida Straits to
the eastern end of Cuba, then continues as a stationary front
over the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
rough seas are found behind this front over the central and
southeastern Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. For
the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate mainly easterly
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front reaches southwestward from the
Florida Straits to the eastern end of Cuba, then continues as a
stationary front over the Yucatan Channel. Winds and seas across
the Gulf have diminished, except fresh winds and higher seas
across the southeastern Gulf through Sun morning. The stationary
front will lift north as a weak warm front over the eastern Gulf
Mon. Meanwhile, another frontal boundary will stall along the
northwestern Gulf Sun night and Mon before pushing southeastward
as a cold front starting Mon afternoon. A weak low pressure will
form along this front over the west-central Gulf, and track
northeastward across the Gulf. In response, strong northerly
winds and rough seas will follow this frontal system across the
Gulf late Tue through Wed. Winds may reach gale force over the
far west-central and southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico
Tue and Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Gulf of Mexico across the
Yucatan Channel to northern Belize. Gentle southerly winds and
seas are noted in the NW Caribbean. High pressure north of the
basin continues to promote moderate to fresh E winds and
moderate seas across the south-central part of the basin. Strong
winds are noted near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the
Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift
north of the region as a warm front Mon. High pressure building
north of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas across the central Caribbean from late Sun through
mid week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the Gale
Warning and Significant Swell event in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to Straits of Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front N of
27.5N. Moderate to fresh SW winds are present ahead of the front
to 67W veering to NW behind the front. Moderate to rough seas
prevail north of 27N between 66W and the east coast of Florida.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas
are present from 66W east to 53W around a 1024 mb high pressure
centered near 31.5N57W.

Two additional cold fronts are depicted across the central
Atlantic. The first front is dissipating and extends from 31N31W
curving southwestward to 27N56W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is depicted ahead of the dissipating cold front north
of 23N and west of 28W. The second cold front enters our waters
near 31N37W and extends southwestward to 29.5N53W. Recent
scatterometer pass reveals areas of strong to near-gale force NW
winds north of 29N between 39W and 43.5W and moderate to fresh
NW winds in between the two fronts. Farther east, a stationary
front stretches southwestward from 31N17W to 18N35W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed east of this feature to the West
African coast, north of 16N. Moderate to fresh S to SW prevail
north of 25N and east of 35W to 17W. Across the remainder of the
basin, gentle to moderate trades and moderate to rough seas
prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front reaching from 31N72W to the Great
Bahama Bank. It will reach from Bermuda to 27N75W, then continue
as a stationary front across NW Bahamas and western Cuba Sun
morning. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas behind the
front north of 28N will diminish by Sun noon. A period of fresh
to strong northeasterly winds are expected north of the
stationary front near the NW Bahamas Sun night. Afterward, the
cold front will continue moving eastward across of the western
Atlantic through Tue, while the stationary will lift north as a
weak warm front Mon. Looking ahead, another cold front will move
off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach from Bermuda to
central Cuba by late Wed. This will cause increasing winds and
seas north of 27N once again.

$$
KRV
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