[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070419
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Broad ridging will build in to the
north of the Caribbean on Sun. The gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures over Colombia will lead to gale-force NE to E
winds Sun night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas will
peak around 12 ft with the strongest winds. Winds tonight and Mon
night will peak at near-gale force in the same area.

Significant Swell Event: A hurricane-force low pressure in the far
north Atlantic is generating a large region of NW swell. Seas
greater than 12 ft extend north of 27N and between 39W and 57W,
peaking near 15 ft around 31N46W. This large swell will spread
toward the southeast tonight through Sun. Seas will decrease into
early next week ahead of the next storm system.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the three Special Features discussed above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to
06N35W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from west-central Florida to near 24N87W,
where it transitions into a stationary front to near Veracruz,
Mexico. A few showers are seen ahead of the front in the SE Gulf.
No deep convection is present in the rest of the Gulf. A weak
pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters, sustaining moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become
stationary Sun afternoon from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W. A
very strong cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf Mon
evening and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Strong to
near gale force SE to S winds will begin in advance of the cold
front, Sun night into early Mon, as a warm front advances
northward across the basin, which should result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Gale force winds are expected by midday
Mon over the north-central Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale
force speeds. Strong to near gale force winds are also expected
across most of the basin by that same time. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely accompany the cold front over portions
of the northern Gulf. Several areas of the Gulf will experience
sustained winds of gale force on both sides of the front.
Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure in the wake
of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will allow
for moderate return flow to set up over the far western Gulf. By
late Thu, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across most
of the basin as the high pressure will have shifted E of northern
Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1024 mb high pressure system centered near 30N60W extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and lower pressures in NW Colombia support strong to near
gale-force easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds
are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft prevail in
the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the
forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near
the coast of Colombia will reach gale force Sun night. Looking
ahead, SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean are expected to
increase early next week as a strong cold front traverses the
Gulf of Mexico. Winds will diminish Wed and Wed night as high
pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Significant Swell in the Atlantic.

A cold front is situated offshore NE Florida, extending from
31N79W to near Daytona Beach. A few showers are seen affecting the
NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the 1024 mb high
pressure positioned near 30N60W and the aforementioned cold front
support fresh to near gale-force winds north of 25N and west of
66W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 25N43W, where it
becomes a stationary front that continues west-southwestward to
22N55W and to 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is found ahead
of the front to 25W and north of 27N. Fresh to strong winds are
found north of 25N and between 25W and 40W. Moderate to fresh NE-E
winds are occurring within 120 nm north of the remainder of the
cold and stationary front. Seas in the areas described are 6-10 ft.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging,
which is sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in
the deep tropics, mainly south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in
these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front off NE Florida is forecast
to reach from near 31N75W to South Florida early Sun, from near
31N58W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 24N55W to
22N70W early Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either
side of this front N of 28N as it moves eastward Sun through Mon.
The eastern part of the front will continue to E of 55W as a cold
front late Tue into Wed, while the rest of the front stalls and
weakens through midweek. Looking ahead to Mon night through Wed,
gale force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another
strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida, while strong
to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere N of 26N
and W of 65W. The gales are likely early Tue through early Wed, N
of 28N between Florida and 70W. Scattered strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms may precede this front. By late Wed, this
front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W to the
central Bahamas and to western Cuba, but very rough seas will
continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas.
These conditions will slowly subside Thu and Thu night as modest
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

$$
Delgado
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