[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front in the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida in a few
hours. Earlier scatterometer pass reveals gale- force S winds are
present offshore northern Florida north of 29N and west of 78W.
Seas range 8 to 12 ft, highest seas are noted with the strongest
winds. The strong winds off the Florida coast will improve Sun
into Sun night ahead of the next strong cold front early next
week.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure ridging will build in
to the north of the Caribbean on Sun. The gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures over Colombia will lead to gale-force NE
to E winds Sun night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas
will peak around 12 ft with the strongest winds. Winds tonight and
Mon night will peak at near-gale force in the same area.

Significant Swell Event: A mid-latitude low pressure in the north
Atlantic is generating a large region of NW swell. Seas greater
than 12 ft extend north of 28N and between 41W and 60W, peaking
near 15 ft between 50W and 55W. This large swell will spread
toward the southeast tonight through Sun. The sea heights will
peak at 14 to 15 ft north of 29N between 35W and 57W through Sun
afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the three Special Features discussed above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W
to 06N34W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 09N between 13W and 31W and from 00N to 06N between 35W and
49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from the north of Tampa, FL near
29N83W to 23N89W then stationary from that point to 20N95W. While
the squall line has deteriorated, showers and thunderstorms still
continue ahead of the front across South Florida and the Florida
Keys,N of 24N and E of 85W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds
are occurring ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds
are noted behind the front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the eastern
Gulf. Across the remainder of the basin behind the front, light to
gentle N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become
stationary Sun afternoon from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are out ahead of the front
along a squall line that is presently in the southeastern Gulf.
Looking ahead, a very strong cold front is expected to enter the
western Gulf Mon evening and move southeast of the basin Tue
night. Strong to near gale force SE to S winds will begin in
advance of the cold front, Sun night into early Mon, as a warm
front advances northward across the basin, which should result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gale force winds are expected
by early Mon afternoon over the north-central Gulf, with gusts
possibly reaching the high end of the gale force speed range.
Strong to near gale force winds are also expected across most of
the basin by that same time. Strong to severe thunderstorms will
likely accompany the cold front over portions of the northern
Gulf. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu s high pressure in the
wake of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will
allow for moderate return flow to set up over the far western
Gulf. By late Thu, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected
across just about the entire basin as the high pressure will have
shifted E of northern Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong high pressure system north of the basin extends
southward into the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the development of
deep convection. Strong ENE to E trades prevail in the south-
central Caribbean offshore Colombia, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.
Fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found in the Gulf of
Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate to fresh with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the
forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near
the coast of Colombia will reach gale force Sun night. Looking
ahead, SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean are expected to
increase again early next week as a strong cold front traverses
the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will diminish Wed and Wed night as high
pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant swell in the
Atlantic.

Between the east coast of Florida and 70W and north of 24N, strong
to near-gale force S winds are present with seas of 6 to 10 ft.
Scattered moderate convection extends from offshore the east coast
of Florida, mainly north of 24N and west of 75W. Farther south,
across the Straits of Florida, SE winds are gentle to moderate
with seas to 3 ft.

A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 32N64W extends surface
ridging southeastward, leading to gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds north of 27N between 55W and 67W. However, large N to NE
swell within this area is producing 8 to 12 ft seas. East of the
ridge, A cold front extends from 31N37W to 23N54W, where it
continues as a stationary front to 22N70W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 25N ahead of the front to 27W.
Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are north of 21N between 32W and
68W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N22W to 27N31W.
Winds near this front are mostly gentle. Surface ridging extends
ahead of the front, allowing for gentle to moderate trades and
seas of 6 to 10 ft north of 20N and E of 35W. South of 20N,
moderate trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to
move across the waters off northeast Florida this evening. This
front is forecast to reach from near 31N75W to South Florida early
Sun, from near 31N58W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from
near 24N55W to 22N70W early Tue. Fresh to strong winds are
expected on either side of this front N of 28N as it moves
eastward. The eastern part of the front will continue to E of 55W
as a cold front late Tue into Wed, while the rest of the front
stalls and weakens through midweek. Looking ahead to Mon night
through Wed, gale force southerly winds are expected to precede
yet another strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida,
while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely
elsewhere N of 26N and W of 65W. Scattered strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms may precede this front. By late Wed, this
next front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W to the
central Bahamas and to western Cuba, but very rough seas will
continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas.
These conditions will slowly subside Thu and Thu night as modest
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net